2026 Futures Speculation

I’ve always heard that futures speculation is a negative-sum game, and its brutality surpasses even A-shares. But I learned that the strategy used by soybean meal ETFs is to hold long positions continuously, constantly roll over the main contracts to capture the backwardation, and benefit from the price increase of soybean meal itself. As a result, the net value performance has been pretty good. So I also considered entering the futures market and adopting a continuous long soybean meal approach to simulate the ETF’s trading idea.

I had this idea last year, but due to the brutal nature of the futures market, I never dared to take action.

At the end of last year, I finally made up my mind. I opened an account with a futures company. The margin requirements from the futures company were the same as the exchange, with no additional charges. The commission fee was just one cent more, which was acceptable.

After opening the account and transferring funds, I was ready to buy soybean meal, but then I encountered a problem. Soybean meal is a special product on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and it requires a special application process. Knowing how brutal the futures market can be, I only transferred 30,000 yuan to test the waters, while the minimum required for soybean meal futures is over 100,000 yuan. You need to pass a risk assessment exam or have at least 50 trading days within the past year to qualify for trading this special product.

Unable to trade and unwilling to invest more money here, I shifted my focus. Corn, comparatively, is more beginner-friendly, with higher trading volume and a lower commission of about 1.21 yuan. Its volatility isn’t too high either. So I started trading corn. In January, I tried many strategies—trend trading, grid trading, or just random trading. At the worst, I lost nearly 2,000 yuan. When I was making profits, it was only a few hundred.

Later, I discovered a method. For example, if the current buy price for corn is 2,300 yuan and the sell price is 2,301 yuan, with both the buy and sell orders having about 2,000 lots each, I would place a one-lot buy order at the buy price and a one-lot sell order at the sell price. If one of these orders gets filled, I immediately reverse the position to close it. Essentially, I earn one point per completed pair, minus a fee of 7.5 yuan, and repeat this process. By doing this repeatedly, I made about 1,200 yuan profit in January. I felt like I had found the holy grail.

In February, I continued this “grind” strategy, earning small profits repeatedly. The market conditions in February were quite suitable for this approach. I quickly earned another 1,000+ yuan, bringing my total funds to over 32,000 yuan.

Like most path-dependent traders, I was comfortable with this method. Greed then crept in—I wanted to expand my gains and changed my strategy, trading two lots each time. Usually, the market would punish overconfidence: within a few days, prices would surge almost without retracement, unlike during sideways oscillations.

At this point, I held only short positions, fighting against the market and refusing to admit my mistakes. Soon, I was full long with 20 lots. The tragedy happened on February 11th when I received a notice from the futures company about margin adjustments during the Spring Festival. Normally, the margin requirement for corn futures was 7%, but after the settlement that night, it was raised to 15%. I didn’t realize how serious this was at the time. I kept fighting the market, refusing to give up. Later, the futures company sent a message saying my account risk level had skyrocketed, requiring me to add margin or reduce positions to keep the account’s available funds positive. I couldn’t bear to cut my positions, so I quickly added nearly 9,000 yuan in margin that day. Even after that, my available funds were still negative over 10,000 yuan overnight. I had no more funds to call upon, so I had to hold on. The next day, the market continued to surge, and I still didn’t close my positions. The futures company kept calling and texting, urging me to add margin. I had no choice but to add nearly 14,000 yuan, bringing my total investment to about 53,000 yuan. Despite this, my available funds still showed a negative balance of over 20,000 yuan because corn futures kept rising sharply—about 1% or nearly 30 points in a day. For 20 lots short, 30 points meant a loss of over 6,000 yuan.

As a futures novice, I was caught completely off guard. My mind was in chaos—I didn’t know what to do. I had no more funds to call upon, and with the Spring Festival approaching, I needed money for that too. I decided to hold on, thinking that if the futures company forcibly liquidated my positions, I would accept it because I simply had no funds left to add. I was reluctant to cut my losses. In fact, if I couldn’t add margin, closing positions would be an option, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. I handed over that authority to the futures company voluntarily.

Today, February 13th, after the night session yesterday peaked at 2,335 points, I didn’t close my positions. The futures company issued a final warning, saying if I didn’t add margin or close positions, they would liquidate my positions according to the contract.

During today’s trading, the market finally declined. It dropped to a low of 2,312 points, then rebounded, then fell again, oscillating repeatedly. My available funds still showed a negative over 20,000 yuan. Before 2:30 pm, the futures company hadn’t liquidated my positions yet.

I thought this would be the end of the last trading day before the Spring Festival. But at 2:36 pm, I received a message that the futures company had forcibly closed 7 short lots.

My available funds then dropped to just over 3,000 yuan. My position went from 20 lots short to 13 lots short. With things as they were, I had no options left.

Before opening the account, I asked AI how long a futures liquidation usually takes. AI replied that most people get liquidated within three months, with about 80% of traders blowing up. I thought I was destined for greatness. But I was liquidated in just a month and a half, even after adding 23,000 yuan. If I hadn’t added that money, I would have been liquidated a few days earlier. This deeply exposed the brutal reality of the futures market and the power of leverage.

What can I do now? I can only learn from this experience. I plan to keep a daily trading journal on this forum. Can I survive a year? I’ve set a rule for myself: never add margin again. If I can’t last a year without adding, then it’s like an endless pit—just play with this much money. After the Spring Festival, I plan to meet the 50 trading days requirement to apply for soybean meal futures trading permission, and then operate on soybean meal.