CryptoQuant Data Deep Dive: BTC Has Not Entered a Deep Bear Market Yet, The Ultimate Bottom May Be at $55,000

Despite recent ongoing volatility in the crypto market, the latest research report from on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant provides investors with a clear macro perspective. The organization points out that Bitcoin has not entered a “deep bear” phase, and its so-called “ultimate” bottom is roughly around $55,000. This conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple data points, including realized prices, market profits, and long-term holder behavior.

Realized Price Anchors the Bottom Range; Historical Patterns Reveal Bottoming Cycles

CryptoQuant emphasizes in the report that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been the most critical support zone during bear cycles, often marking the final bottom of a bear market. Data shows that currently, Bitcoin’s trading price remains over 25% above this key level.

By reviewing history, we can better understand the current position. In past deep bear markets, prices have significantly fallen below the realized price—for example, after the FTX collapse, prices dropped 24% below realized price; during the prolonged 2018 bear market, this figure reached as high as 30%. More importantly, CryptoQuant notes that after reaching these extreme levels, markets typically take four to six months to build a solid bottom, rather than reversing through a single sharp decline event.

Massive Losses Are Not a Sign of Bottoming; Losses Still Have Room to Grow

Earlier this month, the market decline indeed caused significant short-term panic. Data shows that when Bitcoin’s price fell 14% to $62,000 on February 5, holders recorded $5.4 billion in realized losses in a single day. This figure set a new high since March 2023, even surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded after the FTX collapse.

However, CryptoQuant believes that despite the large single-day losses, this is not a sign of a structural bottom. A true bottom requires more widespread “capitulation.” Looking at the monthly cumulative realized losses in Bitcoin terms, the current level is about 300,000 BTC, still far below the 1.1 million BTC seen at the end of the 2022 bear market. This indicates that the market has not yet experienced complete panic selling, and bottom formation still requires time.

Key Valuation Metrics Have Not Entered Extreme Undervalued Zones

Several core on-chain indicators also confirm that the market is still in a “bottoming” phase rather than a “deep bear”:

1. MVRV Ratio: As a classic metric measuring market value relative to realized value, CryptoQuant notes that the current MVRV ratio has not entered the historically extreme undervaluation zone that marks bear market bottoms. Although recently it has fallen to around 1.1, approaching the so-called “undervaluation edge,” strictly speaking, a value below 1 is considered the official entry into undervaluation.
2. NUPL (Unrealized Profit/Loss): This indicator also has not touched the past cycle lows of approximately 20% unrealized loss.

Long-Term Holder Behavior and Market Supply Status

The behavior of long-term holders (LTH) is a key indicator of market sentiment. The report states that currently, long-term holders are only selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas at the bottom of past bear markets, they typically endured losses of 30% to 40% before capitulating.

Additionally, from the overall profit status of the market, about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit. Historically, market lows are often accompanied by this figure dropping to between 45% and 50%.

Cycle Indicators Still in “Bear Market,” Far from “Extreme”

Considering all the above factors, CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicators currently remain in the “bear market” phase, rather than indicating an imminent bottom in the “extreme bear” phase. The organization further explains that “extreme bear” phases in history typically last several months, meaning that bottom formation is a lengthy and complex process rather than a quick event.

Summary

As of February 14, 2026, according to the latest data from the Gate platform, Bitcoin has rebounded amid improving macro sentiment, currently trading at $69,600, up 3.54% in 24 hours, with a high of $69,900. Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $2,050.34, up 5.37% over the same period.

While prices have recovered somewhat, CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis offers investors a rational medium- to long-term perspective. The realized price region around $55,000 will be a key technical level to watch in the coming months to see if the market truly bottoms out. The real market reversal may require further macroeconomic clarity and the appearance of “extreme panic” signals indicated by on-chain data.