Is It Time To Revisit First Solar (FSLR) After Recent Solar Sector Headlines?

Simply Wall St

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 7:16 PM GMT+9 6 min read

In this article:

•                                       StockStory Top Pick 
  

  FSLR

  +2.36%

Get insights on thousands of stocks from the global community of over 7 million individual investors at Simply Wall St.

If you are wondering whether First Solar's current share price still offers value, you are not alone. This article will focus on what the numbers say about where the stock stands today.

The shares recently closed at US$225.65, with returns of 3.2% over 7 days, a 4.6% decline over 30 days, a 17.7% decline year to date and a 41.2% gain over 1 year, alongside a 37.4% return over 3 years and 148.1% over 5 years.

Recent news coverage has highlighted First Solar as a key name investors watch in the US solar and semiconductor space, with attention on how policy support and demand for clean energy equipment could influence sentiment toward the stock. This context helps frame the recent share price moves as investors weigh growth potential against changing perceptions of risk.

First Solar currently holds a valuation score of 6/6, based on six separate checks indicating the shares screen as undervalued. Next we will walk through the main valuation approaches behind that score before finishing with a tool that can help you assess value in an even more practical way.

Find out why First Solar’s 41.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: First Solar Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model looks at the cash First Solar is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those projections back to what they might be worth in today’s dollars. It is essentially asking what a rational buyer might pay now for all those future cash flows in $.

For First Solar, the latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $22.42 million. Analysts have provided detailed estimates out to 2030, with Simply Wall St extending those forecasts a further five years using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. For example, projected free cash flow in 2030 is $3.34b, with interim yearly projections between 2026 and 2035 ranging from roughly $1.68b to $3.01b before discounting.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back and aggregated, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $314.68 per share, compared with the recent share price of US$225.65. That gap implies the shares trade at roughly a 28.3% discount to this DCF estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests First Solar is undervalued by 28.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

FSLR Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for First Solar.

Story Continues  

Approach 2: First Solar Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to connect the price you pay with the earnings you get today. It helps you see how many dollars investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings.

What counts as a normal or fair P/E depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tends to support a lower P/E.

First Solar currently trades on a P/E of 17.29x, compared with an industry average of 43.44x for Semiconductor companies and a peer group average of 89.18x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 41.54x, a proprietary estimate of the P/E you might expect for First Solar given its earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market value and key risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more useful than a simple industry or peer comparison because it attempts to align the P/E with company specific factors instead of only broad group averages. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 41.54x with the current P/E of 17.29x indicates that the shares are trading below this fair multiple estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NasdaqGS:FSLR P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your First Solar Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you connect your view of First Solar’s story to specific assumptions for revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value to the current price and see it update automatically as new news or earnings arrive. Whether you lean closer to a more cautious fair value near US$156, to a more optimistic view around US$347, or land somewhere between those, you can use that comparison to decide how comfortable you are with the gap between price and your own estimate of value.

For First Solar, we will make it straightforward for you with previews of two leading First Solar narratives:

These give you a quick sense of what different investors are focusing on and how their assumptions compare with the recent share price of US$225.65.

🐂 First Solar Bull Case

Fair value in this narrative: about US$281.65

Implied discount vs recent price: roughly 19.8% below this fair value

Assumed revenue growth: 12.54% a year

Focuses on U.S. manufacturing build out, policy support and trade measures that could support demand, margins and pricing for domestically produced modules.

Highlights a large contracted backlog and ongoing thin film technology development as reasons some investors see more earnings power over time.

Flags policy, trade, competitive pressure and credit quality as key risks that could challenge this more optimistic view if conditions change.

🐻 First Solar Bear Case

Fair value in this narrative: about US$155.98

Implied premium vs recent price: roughly 44.7% above this fair value

Assumed revenue growth: 11.0% a year

Describes First Solar as a solid operator with strong government links, but argues the share price is well above what this narrative views as fair value.

Attributes recent share price pressure to broader market sentiment around tariffs and trade tensions, rather than company specific problems.

States a short term upside view and a BUY signal, which you should treat as that author’s opinion and consider in the context of your own assumptions and risk tolerance.

Together, these provide one narrative that sees First Solar trading below its own fair value estimate and another that places fair value well under the current price. The most useful step now is to decide which set of assumptions feels closer to your view of policy risk, manufacturing expansion and long term demand, then use that to frame whether today’s price looks attractive or stretched for you.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there’s more to the story for First Solar? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NasdaqGS:FSLR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include FSLR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

Terms and Privacy Policy

Privacy Dashboard

More Info