Kalshi trading volume continues to hit new highs. What is a reasonable pre-market stock price?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

During market downturns, prediction markets have become the most prominent sector in crypto. In early February, during a market crash, BTC and ETH once fell over 10%, but trading activity in prediction markets remained vigorous, with weekly transaction counts reaching 26.39 million, a new record. Meanwhile, as the largest compliant prediction market platform in the US, Kalshi also surged to the top of the sector in January this year with over $9.5 billion in trading volume, setting a monthly transaction record. This was followed by a new round of market pricing for Kalshi’s pre-market stock price.

Today’s question is—what should be the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi, which is expected to become the “first prediction market stock”?

Overview of Existing Tokenized Trading Platforms for Crypto Stocks: PreStocks, Jarsy

As of writing, there is a clear price discrepancy between two major tokenized trading platforms for Kalshi stocks:

On PreStocks, the pre-market stock price for Kalshi includes two prices—

One is the implied market cap (market liquidity pricing level), with a per-share price of about $369;

The other is the capital market cap (current funding valuation), with a per-share price of about $364.

On Jarsy, the pre-market price per share for Kalshi has already risen to about $504.

It’s worth noting that compared to our previous article, “Kalshi Pre-market Stock Price Surging, Is It Still a Good Time to Buy?”, the pre-market prices on both platforms have experienced varying degrees of fluctuation. The prices at that time were:

• On PreStocks, the implied market cap for Kalshi was about $14 billion, with a per-share price of approximately $407;

• On Jarsy, the market valuation was $11 billion, with a per-share price of $450.

In other words, PreStocks’ price has dropped from $407 to about $369; Jarsy’s price has risen from $450 to about $504.

By comparison, the pre-market stock prices in traditional financial markets for Kalshi have also changed—

• On Nasdaq Private Market, the per-share price for Kalshi has increased from about $307 to about $320;

• On Hiive, the per-share price for Kalshi has risen from about $357 to about $358.

Reasonable Pre-market Price Range for Kalshi Stocks: $320–$423

Last year, Kalshi completed a Series E funding round of $1 billion, with a valuation of $11 billion.

Based on the above-mentioned market cap and corresponding stock prices, the total number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.3 million.

The specific calculation methods are as follows—

Using a $11 billion valuation with traditional pre-market prices of $320 and $358, the estimated number of Kalshi shares is about 30.72 million to 34.37 million;

Using the implied market cap / tokenized stock price and capital market cap / stock calibration price from PreStocks, the estimated share count is about 34.27 million to 34.30 million;

Using the single-share pre-market purchase price from Jarsy, with a maximum market cap of $18.665 billion and a per-share price of $604.84, the share count is approximately 30.86 million.

Based on this information, we can make the following inferences:

First, with a valuation of $11 billion, the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $320–$358. In other words, the current prices on crypto tokenized trading platforms like PreStocks and Jarsy are relatively high.

Second, Kalshi’s trading volume in January reached $9.5 billion, close to the estimated $10 billion scale of the prediction market in October last year. At that time, Kalshi’s market share was about 50% of the prediction market. Based on this, Kalshi’s current market valuation is at least over $15 billion.

Third, based on a $15 billion valuation and the data on Kalshi’s share count range, the pre-market stock price range is approximately $436–$488.

Therefore, if Kalshi’s share count aligns with expectations and assuming a $15 billion implied market cap, a conservative estimate for the pre-market stock price range is $320–$378 (averaging the lowest price in the range). An optimistic estimate would be $358–$423 (averaging the highest price in the range).

Based on these data, Jarsy’s pre-market price for Kalshi stocks appears overvalued, while PreStocks presents some arbitrage opportunities.

Additionally, the latest tokenized trading platform Tessera plans to open equity public offerings in the future, which readers can consider as an alternative (invitation code here).

Combining this with information from Odaily Planet Daily’s previous article, “Data Calculation: Polymarket’s Annual Revenue Exceeds $100 Million Is Not Difficult, Provided That…”, the relevant details include:

Based on the trading volume and fee ratio of the “15-minute crypto price rise/fall” market on Polymarket, and static calculations, under current trading volume and structure, if Polymarket introduces similar fee models across all markets, it is expected to generate annual revenue of $418 million.

As a prediction market platform with larger trading volume and higher fees, and considering the upcoming sports event year in 2026, Kalshi’s annual revenue could surpass the estimated revenue of Polymarket. This suggests that future capital markets may further elevate Kalshi’s pre-market stock price.