Under the full moon, Bitcoin faces weak suppression—Market depth analysis and timing for dollar-cost averaging

Although February 2nd was a full moon, the market’s performance did not meet many investors’ expectations. Historically, prices tend to rise around the full moon, but this time the situation is completely different. Bitcoin is currently showing extreme weakness, and the actual market trend mainly depends on the movement of large-scale short positions, while the overall market has already lost its intrinsic upward momentum.

Market Performance Before and After the Full Moon: Historical Patterns vs. Current Reality

In recent years, the period around the full moon has typically seen a rally. However, during this full moon, Bitcoin has not changed its weak trend. Initial stop-loss actions by market participants reflect the fragility of the current market—some seemingly profitable positions are quickly closed when traders realize the market lacks upward momentum. This indicates that cyclical factors like the full moon alone are no longer sufficient to support price increases; stronger fundamentals or capital support are needed.

AHR999 Indicator Warning: Bear Market Depth Still Not Bottomed Out

The most warning-significant is that the AHR999 indicator has fallen to around 0.4, which is comparable to mid-June 2022, when Bitcoin was in a bottoming zone after dropping from $27,000 to $22,000. If we mechanically apply the historical pattern of this indicator, Bitcoin could still fall another 40%, potentially reaching around $47,000.

However, it is worth noting that in this bull market, the AHR999 has not significantly broken above the dollar-cost averaging line 1. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price, relative to its exponential growth valuation, has not greatly exceeded it. In this mild and somewhat exhausted bull market context, will Bitcoin really drop sharply below the mining cost line like in 2022? The lowest point in 2022 was $15,450, while the mining cost line was in the $23,000–$27,000 range, representing a severe decline.

ETF Cost Price Pressure: The $60 Billion “Lock-in Line”

In this bull market, the peak inflow into Bitcoin ETFs was about $60 billion, with an average cost basis around $84,000–$86,000. Currently, $10 billion has already flowed out, leaving about $50 billion still invested. With Bitcoin trading near 696,400 yuan, this means ETF investors are already at a loss. This raises a key question: can Bitcoin really stay significantly below the ETF’s average cost basis for the long term? The $60 billion of trapped funds will serve as an important psychological support level.

Altcoins’ Limited Decline: Deep Bear Market Requires a Catalyst

From the performance of altcoins, the current decline is still insufficient to confirm that a true bear market has arrived. For example, Cardano (ADA) is now trading at $0.28, down 78% from its peak of $1.30. But in the last bull-to-bear cycle, ADA fell by 92%. Dogecoin (DOGE) also experienced a similar situation, dropping from $0.50 to $0.10, an 80% decline, while in the previous bear market, the decline reached 93.3%.

This suggests that to reach a truly deep bear market, a major risk event like the FTX collapse in 2022 may be necessary to trigger a sharp decline. The current market adjustments alone are not enough to cause the kind of deep drop seen in the last cycle.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Competition

Interestingly, one key factor hindering Bitcoin’s rise may be the distraction caused by altcoins. The Bitcoin market dominance indicator (BTC.D) declined during the 2017 and 2021 bull markets because altcoins attracted significant investor attention. This may be a misunderstanding of the market—what is more likely in the future is a long-term upward trend in BTC.D. As the store of value aiming to replace gold, Bitcoin’s increasing market share is a natural development.

DCA Window Emerges: Strategic Opportunity at $60K–$65K

Based on the above analysis, entering the AHR999 bottoming zone early means we cannot simply copy the rhythm and magnitude of the last bear market. Unless a major collapse occurs, Bitcoin is unlikely to easily fall below $50,000. Once the price drops into the $60,000–$65,000 range, it will be an ideal window to start dollar-cost averaging strategies.

It is almost certain that Bitcoin’s long-term bull market will return soon. This bear market may be the last cycle with a significant decline. Investors should prepare their ammunition and heavily position during deep bear periods. The current exponential growth valuation has already reached around $14,200. If the next bull market peak occurs in 2029, the AHR999 index valuation could reach the million-dollar level. If Bitcoin’s price can again reach the exponential valuation level, the gains could be substantial.