Probability is the key to predicting the likelihood of a US government shutdown, and the latest data from Polymarket shows an interesting figure: 48% for the event before Valentine's Day. This probability level reflects a significant market sentiment regarding the risk of a shutdown. Interestingly, probability is a fluctuating metric—previous data once reached 57% before eventually dropping back to 48%, indicating a shift in trader expectations. The betting volume on this shutdown scenario reaches around $87,000, indicating that the market is taking the possibility of a government closure during that period very seriously.