Dragonfly analyst points out that the market share will undergo a drastic change in 2026

GasFeeCrying · 2026-02-16T13:01:14+00:00

Hasaeb, managing partner at Dragonfly, predicts significant shifts in the crypto market by 2026, with Bitcoin's price rising but its market share declining. Layer 1 blockchains may see varied performances, and stablecoins will likely witness increased concentration. Regulatory changes and technological maturation will reshape the market landscape.

GasFeeCrying

2026-02-16 13:01:14

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Hasaeb, the managing partner of the cryptocurrency investment firm Dragonfly, recently made bold predictions about the crypto market in 2026 on X. His forecasts suggest that the current market dominance structure will undergo significant changes, leading to a reshuffling of market share.

Bitcoin Will Grow, but Market Share Will Shrink

According to Hasaeb’s predictions, BTC is expected to surpass $150,000 by the end of 2026. While the price is anticipated to rise steadily, BTC’s market share within the overall crypto market is expected to decline. This indicates a scenario where other asset classes grow rapidly at the same time, reducing BTC’s relative market share.

Layer 1 Blockchain Segregation Will Advance

Public fintech blockchains such as Tempo, Arweave, and Robinhood Chain are likely to underperform market expectations. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Solana are predicted to outperform expectations. This trend is driven by top-tier developers continuing to favor infrastructure chains that prioritize neutrality. Additionally, major tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Apple may enter or acquire crypto wallet businesses by 2026, potentially capturing market share.

Accelerated Oligopoly in the Stablecoin Market

In the derivatives DEX market, the top three projects are expected to hold about 90% of the total market share, with numerous other projects competing for the remaining 10%. In the stablecoin market, supply is projected to increase by approximately 60% by the end of 2026, with US dollar-pegged stablecoins maintaining over 99% of the market. Among these, USDT’s market share is expected to slightly decline to around 55%, compared to current levels.

Market Reshuffling Due to Regulation and Technological Maturity

The Clarity Act, which will significantly impact US crypto regulation, is expected to be officially enacted in 2026. However, it is also noted that the process will require extensive negotiations and revisions. While the prediction markets are expected to develop rapidly, about 90% of prediction market products are forecasted to gradually disappear from the market, losing market share. Regarding AI applications in the crypto space, the primary uses are expected to remain limited to software engineering and security fields for the time being, with other areas still in prototype stages.

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