Concerns over AI intensify, the risk of a trade war rekindles, financial and software stocks drag down U.S. stocks, gold rises for the fourth consecutive day, and silver futures surge nearly 8% at one point.

This Monday, the U.S. stock market faced a double blow: a research report from June 2028 and new use cases for Anthropic’s products intensified market concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional business models; after most global tariffs were overturned by the Supreme Court last year, President Trump reignited the risk of a trade war. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin followed risk assets such as U.S. stocks and were sold off, boosting safe-haven sentiment. U.S. Treasury prices rebounded, and gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive day.

All three major U.S. stock indices fell more than 1% intraday on Monday, with the Dow leading the decline at close. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped more than the S&P and Nasdaq.

A hypothetical research report released by Citrini Research over the weekend became a catalyst for market sentiment on Monday. The report detailed potential risks of AI technology to employment and tech companies, hypothesizing that by 2028 AI could cause large-scale white-collar unemployment, decreased consumer spending, software-related loan defaults, and economic contraction. Following the report, stocks in delivery, payments, and software sectors all declined, with the financial sector leading the S&P.

Private credit firms and alternative asset managers plummeted

Fourier Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Orlando Gemes warned, “The warning signals we see today in private credit are eerily similar to those in 2007.” He pointed out that deteriorating protections for lenders and complex liquidity terms “mask the mismatch between assets investors believe they hold and what they can actually exit.”

Software stocks were hit hard, with the software ETF IGV falling nearly 4.8%, continuing to hit a new two-year low and likely posting its worst monthly performance since 2008. IBM became the latest victim of AI panic. Anthropic announced the launch of new programming features for its Claude Code product, automating much of the research analysis work for the COBOL programming language. IBM’s stock fell about 13%, marking its largest daily decline since 2000.

IBM stock drops to its lowest since April 2025, the month Trump announced the so-called reciprocal tariffs

According to CCTV News, last Friday, the day the Supreme Court ruled that its large-scale tariff policies were “ultra vires,” Trump announced a 10% increase in import tariffs, and the next day, he announced raising this new global tariff rate to 15%. Trump also warned Monday that any country attempting to “play tricks” using the Supreme Court’s ruling would face higher tariffs and more severe consequences. Nonetheless, the EU decided to suspend approval of trade agreements with the U.S. and Europe, adding uncertainty to U.S.-EU trade relations.

Democratic senators in the U.S. Senate also proposed legislation to push the Trump administration to refund over $100 billion in tariffs already collected, which could escalate conflicts between Trump and Congress, increasing uncertainty. Retail stocks sensitive to tariffs declined across the board.

Due to uncertainty in U.S. trade policy and ongoing tensions with Iran, investors flocked to safer assets, with gold rising over 2% intraday and accumulating more than 7% over four trading days. Gold futures once surged over 3%, and silver rose even more sharply, with futures up nearly 8% at one point.

The dollar declined for consecutive days after the Supreme Court ruling. Macquarie’s global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman noted that tariffs are itself a source of uncertainty originating from the U.S., and that uncertainty centered on the U.S. is detrimental to the dollar. The Supreme Court’s decision increases uncertainty because Trump may restart the tariff war using yet-to-be-unveiled legal tools.

International crude oil rebounded but failed to sustain gains on Monday. Investors weighed the outlook for the upcoming third round of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty.

All three major U.S. stock indices declined at least about 1%, Anthropic’s product threatened programming languages, software stocks like IBM suffered their largest drop since 2000; the financial sector fell over 3%, leading the S&P, with asset managers like KKR dropping nearly 9%, and Blue Owl, targeted by aggressive hedge funds for its credit fund, falling over 3%; retail stocks sensitive to tariffs declined; cybersecurity stocks continued their plunge after Anthropic’s new tool threatened the sector last Friday.

Major U.S. stock indices:

• S&P 500 down 1.04%, at 6,837.75 points.
• Dow Jones down 821.91 points, 1.66%, at 48,804.06 points.
• Nasdaq down 1.13%, at 22,627.273 points.
• Nasdaq 100 down 1.21%, at 24,708.942 points.
• Russell 2000 down 1.61%, at 2,620.99 points.

U.S. sector ETFs:

• Overall banking and regional bank ETFs fell over 4%; financials and tech sector ETFs declined over 3%; technology ETF down over 1%.
• Among S&P 500 sectors, five declined on Monday: financials down over 3.3%, consumer discretionary down over 2%, IT, industrials, and communication services down over 1%. Six sectors rose: consumer staples up nearly 1.5%, healthcare over 1%, utilities over 0.7%, energy 0.6%, real estate and materials close to 0.2%.

The Magnificent 7 tech giants:

• The Magnificent 7 index fell 0.96%, at 195.77 points.
• Microsoft down 3.21%, Tesla, Meta, Amazon each down up to 2.91%, Google A down 1.11%, Apple up 0.60%, Nvidia up 0.91%.

Financial stocks:

• Among Dow components, American Express down 7.2%, JPMorgan down over 4.2%, Goldman Sachs down nearly 3.3%.
• Asset managers: KKR down about 8.9%, Blue Owl (OWL) down 3.3%, Blackstone (BK) down 2.2%.
• Philadelphia KBW Bank Index down 4.40%, at 161.73; Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index down 4.27%, at 132.90.

Financial stocks plunged on Monday

Software stocks:

• IBM down nearly 13.2%, its largest decline since October 2000, leading the Dow; Salesforce down nearly 3.8%.

IBM’s biggest daily drop since October 2000

• Several software stocks downgraded by Jefferies, including Monday.com, Freshworks, and Workday, fell 7.2%, nearly 7.8%, and 6.2%, respectively.

Overall decline in software stocks on Monday

Retail stocks impacted by Trump’s tariff hikes:

• Wayfair (W) down about 9.8%; American Eagle (AEO) down nearly 6.4%; Gap (GAP) down 6%; Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) down over 5.4%; Lululemon (LULU) down 4.9%; Abercrombie (ANF) down over 3.9%; Nike (NKE) down 3.5%.

Cybersecurity stocks:

• CrowdStrike down nearly 9.9%, Zscaler down 10.3%, Okta down 6.4%, Cloudflare down 9.6%; Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) down nearly 5%.

Semiconductor stocks:

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 0.57%, at 8,213.457 points.
• AMD down nearly 1.8%, Qualcomm down over 1.7%, Broadcom down nearly 0.7%, TSMC in U.S. markets down nearly 0.2%. In memory chips, Western Digital down nearly 1.8%, Micron down nearly 1.7%, Seagate down 0.9%, while SanDisk rose over 2.5%.

Chinese concept stocks:

• Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.95%, at 7,478.41 points.
• NetEase down nearly 1.8%, Baidu down 1.4%, Alibaba down nearly 1.1%, NIO up over 4%.

Energy stocks:

• After the Supreme Court accepted its appeal to block state and local government lawsuits over climate change damages, ExxonMobil (XOM) rose nearly 2.4%, Suncor Energy (SU) up nearly 1%.

Volatile individual stocks:

• Eli Lilly (LLY) rose nearly 4.9% after clinical trials showed its weight-loss drug outperformed Novo Nordisk.
• Arcellx (ACLX), a cancer cell therapy company, surged 77.4% after a $7.8 billion acquisition by Gilead Sciences.
• ImmunityBio (IBRX), a clinical-stage immunotherapy firm, rose 13% after announcing a 700% YoY increase in net sales last year and more approvals in lung cancer treatment.
• Due to blizzards on the U.S. East Coast, United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta (DAL) declined nearly 5.2%, 4.9%, and 3.7%, respectively. Also affected was DoorDash (DASH), impacted by AI panic, down 6.6%.

European pan-continental indices and UK stocks hit record lows; trials showed its weight-loss drug underperformed Lilly, with Novo Nordisk plunging over 16%, and the Danish stock index falling more than 7%.

Pan-European stocks:

• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.45%, at 627.70 points, retreating from last Friday’s rebound to a new closing high.

STOXX 600 sectors:

• Healthcare down nearly 1.4%; Danish-listed Novo Nordisk, the highest market cap pharma in Europe, down nearly 16.5%, after its Phase 3 REDEFINE 4 trial showed its combination drug CagriSema’s weight loss (20.2% after 48 weeks) was less than Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide (23.6%).
• Basic resources up about 1%, with Polish copper producer KGHM up over 3.3%; oil & gas up over 0.7%, supported by the Supreme Court’s acceptance of ExxonMobil and Suncor Energy appeals.

Major European national indices:

• Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 down 7.2%, leading declines; the UK FTSE and France CAC retreated after last Friday’s rebound; Italy and Spain’s indices rose for two consecutive days.

Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs spurs safe-haven flows, U.S. Treasury prices rebound, 10-year yields near three-month lows

U.S. Treasuries:

• The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield approached 4.09% intraday, hitting a high, then stabilized around 4.07% before declining. During the midday, it fell below 4.02% to a new intraday low, approaching the lowest since late November 2025, before closing around 4.03%, down about 5 basis points from the previous day’s rebound.
• The 2-year Treasury yield rose above 3.48% before the open, then generally declined, falling below 3.44% at midday to a new intraday low, away from the high of over 3.50% reached last Friday, and ending near 3.44%, down about 4 basis points on the day.

Both yields declined on Monday, with medium-term bonds leading the decline

European bonds:

• By the close, the UK 10-year gilt yield was about 4.31%, down 4 basis points; the German 10-year bund yield was about 2.71%, down 3 basis points.

Following the Supreme Court’s reversal of Trump’s tariffs, the dollar index fell from a four-week high over two days; offshore RMB briefly broke 6.89, approaching a three-year high; Bitcoin intraday fell below $64,000 to a more than two-week low, down over 5% from the high.

Dollar:

• ICE Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 97.40 in early Asian trading, hitting a daily low, down nearly 0.5%. After European markets opened, the decline narrowed, with the index briefly rebounding above 97.85, then quickly retreating and continuing to decline, moving away from the high set last Friday, which was the highest since January 23.
• By late Monday, the dollar index approached 97.70, down nearly 0.1% intraday; Bloomberg’s spot dollar index also edged lower, both failing to rebound after last Friday’s four-day rally.

Non-dollar currencies:

• The yen reversed three days of decline, with USD/JPY hitting 154.00 in early Asian trading, down from last Friday’s high above 155.60, the highest since February 10, down nearly 0.7% intraday.
• Offshore RMB (CNH) briefly dipped below 6.9009 against the dollar in early Asian trading, then rebounded and maintained gains. In early U.S. trading, it hit 6.8823, approaching the high since April 2023, with a 155-point increase. As of 5:59 a.m. Beijing time on the 24th, the offshore RMB was at 6.8879, up 99 points from last Friday’s New York close, rising for two consecutive days.

Cryptocurrencies:

• Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $67,000 in early Asian trading, hitting a daily high, then declined overall, falling below $64,000 by the close, a low not seen since February 6, down over $3,700 or more than 5% from the high. At market close, it was below $64,500, down over 4% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin hits a new intraday low since February 6, repeatedly dropping below $65,000

• Ethereum (ETH) briefly approached $1,960 in early Asian trading, hitting a daily high, then fell below $1,840 during U.S. trading, also hitting a low since February 6, down over 6% from the high. At close, near $1,860, down over 4% in 24 hours.

Gold reached a new high for the month intraday, with futures up over 3% at one point, silver futures hitting a new monthly high, rising nearly 8% intraday. London copper and aluminum declined from over a week’s high, while tin rose over 2%, marking two consecutive positive days.

Gold:

• By midday, COMEX April gold futures closed up 2.85%, at $5,225.60 per ounce, the highest since January 29, marking a second day of gains. At close, spot gold was at $5,236.04, up over 2.5% intraday.
• After the U.S. stock market closed, gold futures broke above $5,250, with gains expanding to nearly 3.5%. Spot gold near the close was around $5,238, up nearly 2.6% for the day.

Spot gold surged past $5,210 in U.S. midday trading, with gains exceeding 2%

Silver:

• COMEX March silver futures rose 5.14%, to $86.573 per ounce, a new high since January 29. During U.S. trading, it hit $88.86, up over 7.9% from last Friday’s close.
• Spot silver approached $88.89 near the close, both it and futures hitting their highest since February 5, up 5% intraday.

London base metals futures:

• Lead (London zinc) fell less than 0.9%, while copper, aluminum, nickel, and lead declined from over a week’s high after last Friday’s rebound. Tin rose over 2%, reaching a new high for over a week.
• LME zinc down over 0.8%, at $3,354/ton; LME copper down over 0.7%, at $12,868/ton; LME aluminum down about 0.4%, at $3,090/ton; LME tin up about 2.5%, at $47,718/ton.

Crude oil intraday rose over 1% to a six-month high, then reversed lower; Brent crude ended the day with a third consecutive gain.

International crude futures:

• Early Asian trading saw WTI dip to $65.38, down nearly 1.7%, Brent crude fell to $70.69, down nearly 1.5%. After European markets opened, both rebounded; during U.S. morning trading, WTI rose to $67.28, up 1.2%, Brent to $72.50, up slightly over 1%. By midday, both turned lower.
• At close, both contracts declined from last Friday’s mixed session: WTI April down $0.27, 0.38%, at $66.31; Brent April down $0.27, 0.38%, at $71.49 per barrel.

WTI intraday gains over 1% reversed later in the day

U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures:

• NYMEX March gasoline down 0.4%, at $1.9892 per gallon, marking a second day of decline; last Friday, NYMEX March natural gas fell about 2%, at $2.9850 per million British thermal units.

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Market risks are inherent; please invest cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.