Unprecedented! $BTC monthly candles have five consecutive down weeks, and the fear index drops below historical lows. In the meat grinder of war and tariffs, where is your wealth shelter?

The market continues its weakness this month. After trading within the $65,000 to $72,000 range for several days, $BTC finally moved downward, breaking below the $63,000 level. $ETH also dropped from around $2,100 to approximately $1,810. The entire altcoin market generally declined.

If the month closes with a negative candle, from the October 12, 2021 high of $125,000, $BTC will have experienced its fifth consecutive monthly red candle. This would be its longest streak of declines in history.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation in the crypto market reached $32.7 million, with long positions accounting for $23.4 million. The market’s fear index is currently at 9, in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This index has hovered below 10, its all-time low, for several days.

Global financial markets are also shrouded in uncertainty. A report from Citrini Research detailed the disruptive risks artificial intelligence could pose to the global economy, increasing market anxiety. Coupled with geopolitical turmoil and new tariff tensions, major US stock indices closed lower on Monday. The S&P 500 fell 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.13%.

Safe-haven funds are flowing into precious metals. Silver in New York surged 7.5% intraday, spot silver rose 5%, and spot gold increased 2.5%.

Funds are withdrawing from crypto spot ETFs. Data shows $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $316 million last week. BlackRock’s IBIT had a net outflow of $303 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC saw nearly $19.6 million in withdrawals. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded a net inflow of $35.97 million. $ETH spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $123 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows.

On the macro front, tensions are intensifying. Reports indicate Trump has informed advisors of his inclination to carry out a preliminary military strike on Iran in the coming days, with larger operations planned in the following months to force Iran to capitulate. The US State Department has ordered non-essential diplomats and their families to leave Lebanon.

The trade sector is also turbulent. The US Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that Trump’s previous tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unconstitutional. On the same day, Trump invoked the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on global imports, with threats to raise it to 15%. The University of Pennsylvania’s forecast model estimates that over $175 billion in tariff revenue faces potential refunds.

Due to the high uncertainty in US trade policy, risk aversion has increased. US Treasury prices rebounded, and gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive day.

Back to the crypto market itself, analysis platforms show that $BTC plummeted 4.5% within two hours, with its market cap dropping to $64,200, hitting a new low since February 5. Many long positions were forcibly liquidated, and open interest in $BTC futures fell to $195 billion, less than half of last year’s peak of $383 billion.

Although this correction occurred on Sunday night in the US—when social media activity is usually lower—market sentiment has surged to its highest in two weeks. As the $65,000 support level was broken, retail investors quickly panicked. Historical experience suggests that such extreme fear often helps trigger rapid price rebounds.

Another analysis firm, Glassnode, notes that recent spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators still lean toward defensive. Selling pressure has eased slightly, and momentum has improved, but market participation and capital flows remain weak, making prices vulnerable to volatility. A more sustained recovery likely depends on a revival in spot demand and a significant increase in on-chain activity.

Meanwhile, the $BTC realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) has fallen below 1, indicating the market has entered a phase of widespread realized losses. Historically, when this indicator drops below 1, it usually takes more than six months to recover above 1. This suggests that liquidity recovery will be a gradual process.

Follow me for more real-time analysis and insights into the crypto market! $BTC $ETH $SOL

#Celebrating New Year at Gate Square

#Trump Announces New Tariff Policies