Last week of February liquidation risk warning: ETH, BNB, and BCH face bearish pressure

In the last week of February, the crypto market did not experience the anticipated “spring rally,” but instead continued to decline amid ongoing market panic. Although Bitcoin struggled around $64,000, the altcoin market showed a severe imbalance between bulls and bears. For high-leverage traders, this week could be extremely risky. Data indicates that Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are currently facing significant potential liquidation pressures. If prices unexpectedly rebound, overly concentrated short positions could trigger a sharp “short squeeze” event.

Ethereum (ETH): Whales Reducing Holdings vs. ETF Inflows

As a market indicator for altcoins, Ethereum (ETH) recent price movements have been closely watched. According to Gate data, as of February 24, 2026, ETH was priced at $1,830.6, down 2.38% in 24 hours. Its current market cap is $231.09 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $427.57 million. The liquidation map shows market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with many traders betting on further declines, leading to significant short positions.

This bearish sentiment partly stems from whale activity on the chain. Reports indicate that Vitalik Buterin reduced his ETH holdings by over 8,800 coins in February, while inflows to exchanges reached their highest level since November 2025. This “outflow of funds” has intensified market panic.

However, markets are always contradictory. While retail traders panic and sell, institutional funds are quietly flowing back in. Data shows that after four weeks of outflows, ETH ETFs turned to net inflows last week. Additionally, CryptoQuant data reveals that inflows to ETH addresses over the past six months have reached their most active levels in history. This divergence between retail and institutional activity is a core reason for increased liquidation risk.

Liquidation risk analysis: If ETH unexpectedly rebounds to $2,000 this week, on-chain data suggests up to $2 billion in short positions could be liquidated. If the rebound continues to $2,160, this figure could rise to $3.6 billion. For ETH currently oscillating around $1,830, any positive news could trigger this chain reaction.

Ethereum exchange liquidation map, source: Coinglass

Binance Coin (BNB): Reaching Long-term Support, Excessive Bearish Sentiment

Binance Coin (BNB) has also been performing poorly recently, with six consecutive weekly red candles. Gate data shows BNB is currently priced at $590.6, down 1.30% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $80.49 billion. The ongoing decline has made short-term traders almost unanimously bearish.

This high consensus on downside creates potential risk. According to the liquidation map, if BNB rebounds to $640, approximately $35 million in short positions could be liquidated; if it breaks through $680, total liquidations could exceed $60 million.

BNB exchange liquidation map, source: Coinglass

Why should we be cautious of short risks? First, technically, BNB is approaching its long-term upward trendline support established since 2024. Shorting at this critical support risks trend reversal. Second, from a valuation perspective, on-chain analysis by On-Chain Mind shows BNB’s current trading price is about 37% below its realized price for short-term holders. Historically, such deep discounts often indicate undervaluation and are frequently followed by strong rebounds.

Short-term holder fund withdrawal for BNB, source: On-Chain Mind

Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Whales Accumulating Quietly, Average Transaction Volume Surges

Among the three tokens analyzed, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) shows a unique pattern. Despite Gate data indicating a 10.34% decline in 24 hours at a current price of $484.49, BCH has still gained 47.77% over the past year, outperforming many mainstream coins.

Market sentiment shifts often happen unexpectedly. Short-term traders’ bearish sentiment on BCH peaked in the last week of February, making potential short liquidations much larger than long positions. However, on-chain data paints a different picture.

First, whales are actively accumulating. Data from Bitinfocharts shows addresses have increased their holdings by 400,000 BCH over two months, making them the third-largest holders on the network. Second, BCH’s actual adoption metrics are astonishing. Recent reports indicate that the average transaction volume on the BCH network has surged above $2 million, nearly 100 times higher than the same period last year.

Third-largest BCH holder, source: Bitinfocharts

Liquidation risk analysis: With whales accumulating and network activity surging, excessive short positions become extremely dangerous. If BCH rebounds to $630 this week, an estimated $45 million in short liquidations could occur. For traders trying to bet against the market in the final week, this is a high-stakes game.

BCH exchange liquidation map, source: Coinglass

Market Sentiment and Rational Thinking

Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss recently stated, “The current crypto market sentiment is so bad that I am quite optimistic.” This statement accurately reflects the current market situation.

According to Gate data, the crypto fear and greed index has been in the “extreme fear” zone throughout February. In such an environment, shorting may seem to follow the trend, but the risk-reward ratio is very low. The cases of ETH, BNB, and BCH show that when market sentiment is overly uniform, even a small catalyst can trigger a sharp reversal, turning high-leverage short positions into casualties.

For investors, it’s crucial to monitor price movements closely in the last week of February, especially at key liquidation levels mentioned above. Maintaining rationality amid extreme panic may be more important than blindly following the trend.