South Africa Leading Index Drops in December

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa decreased by 1% month-on-month in December 2025, reversing a 1.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the first decline since September, as decreases in five of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in South Africa’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. The main negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator fell by 0.2% in December, slipping from a 0.3% rise in the prior period, due to decreases in the industrial production index and the utilisation of production capacity in the manufacturing sector. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month.