A big bearish candle, once again accompanied by wailing and crying, with mourning everywhere.

Getting straight to the point, will it fall again? Yes. How low will it go? There is a key support level below, around 62,300.
Can it hold? Probably not. What if it can't hold? Watch the 58,400 level, or even lower. How low could it go? If the price chooses to fully respond to geopolitical war issues, it could drop to around 53,000. Are the bulls completely out of luck? Whether there's any hope depends on how the main funds are thinking and whether they can withstand the pressure. After all, in this environment, the selling pressure from retail investors is still very heavy, even at this stage. We can only set a simple standard, such as whether the price can break above 65,000 again in the next day or two. If yes, the bulls still have a chance. If not, then it’s time to see how the bears perform.

But to be honest, including what I’ve emphasized many times before, do you think the main funds aren’t accumulating? That’s not true. The main funds are indeed accumulating, just not very quickly, and their accumulation methods aren’t very complex yet. However, with today’s geopolitical conflict, the way the main funds accumulate might start to become more complicated. For example, this sharp decline has once again caused retail investors worldwide to panic, casting a shadow over their already fragile sentiment. Even those who haven't cut losses at the top might not be able to withstand the current situation when they see today’s war and the resulting plunge. What’s the outcome? The outcome is selling. But that’s exactly what the main funds want.

But on the other hand, if those at the top or on the halfway hill don’t sell, and those holding long positions still hold on, should they persist? That’s hard to say. After all, what I’m talking about is spot holdings; your long positions have liquidation prices. Do I think it’s possible to push down to 50,000 or even 40,000? It’s possible, depending on how you see it.

Anyway, I think, as I’ve said several times before, I don’t believe the decline from this point will be so severe. On the contrary, I look forward to the performance after March. When the dust settles, it will probably be a land of gold. It’s just a matter of time. #深度创作营