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Bitcoin just had its first bi-monthly close of the year - some correlation here with the past two bear cycles.
In 2018 and 2022, we had 181 days of bearish bi-monthly closes before we had a bullish candle. This likely means our first hope at a HTF bullish candle is May 2026.
The stoch pivot is worse than the monthly at $119k. Now when this stoch crosses back bullish, it usually means the bottom is in, however that takes a long time and likely won't happen until Q1 / Q2 2027.