Wheat Futures Climbing as Market Digests Supply Updates

The wheat market is experiencing notable momentum in early trading, with futures across multiple contracts posting solid gains. Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) futures are advancing 5 to 7 cents, while Kansas City HRW (Hard Red Winter) futures mirror similar performance at 5 to 7 cents higher. Minneapolis spring wheat is holding steady with marginal gains at midday. These moves reflect growing trader attention ahead of key supply reports expected this week, including updates on everything from grain exports to flour production levels like wheat paste and processed products.

USDA Export Data Set to Influence Price Direction Thursday

One of the most anticipated catalysts for wheat trading will arrive Thursday morning when the USDA releases its Export Sales report. Market participants are forecasting between 200,000 and 500,000 MT in bookings for old crop wheat during the week of February 5, while new crop sales estimates range between 0 and 75,000 MT. These numbers carry significant weight in determining whether the recent uptrend can sustain or if consolidation emerges. The narrowing estimate range suggests heightened uncertainty among traders about actual demand levels.

French Wheat Exports Decline While Strategic Reserves Build

International supply dynamics continue reshaping market sentiment. According to FrancAgriMer data released this morning, French soft wheat exports outside the European Union are projected at 7.2 MMT for the 2025/26 season—a decline of 0.3 MMT compared to January forecasts. However, there’s a supportive counterpoint: French wheat ending stocks are estimated at 3.05 MMT, up 0.25 MMT month-over-month. This inventory buildup could provide some price support by signaling adequate global supply, though lower export projections may weigh on longer-term sentiment.

Individual Contract Movements Show Broad-Based Strength

The strength is distributed evenly across major wheat futures contracts, indicating this isn’t a single-contract rally but rather a market-wide phenomenon. March 2026 CBOT Wheat is trading at $5.35 1/4, up 7 cents, while May 2026 CBOT is at $5.43 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents. Kansas City contracts show comparable momentum: March 2026 KCBT Wheat at $5.37, gaining 6 1/2 cents, and May 2026 KCBT at $5.49 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat March 2026 (MIAX) remains essentially flat at $5.68 1/4, while May 2026 MIAX added a fractional 1/2 cent to reach $5.80. The consistency in gains across contracts suggests broad participation rather than isolated strength.

For grain traders and analysts monitoring agricultural commodities, the remainder of this week will prove critical. Thursday’s USDA export data could serve as the next major pivot point, potentially either accelerating the current rally or prompting profit-taking among recent buyers of wheat futures positions.