Let's briefly discuss the three most important macro events this week that are related to your positions.

This week's data mainly represents the last batch of impactful inputs before the FOMC meeting, marking the first mental reset after the New Year.

The first is the US February CPI report scheduled for Wednesday, March 11, at 8:30 PM.

I've emphasized several key points before: the market has shifted from inflation to stagflation expectations.

The so-called data weakness equals easing equals rate cuts has always been based on the premise that inflation is under control.

This means that this week's CPI data must be sufficiently weak to raise expectations of rate cuts to a certain level, forcing the Fed to concede to the market, then risk appetite will increase, and BTC and risk markets will rise.

Conversely, if stagflation expectations increase and CPI remains relatively strong, the probability of weak CPI data is higher than strong data. However, I still recommend that even if BTC has fallen back to around 67,000, you should still hold a short position.

Even if CPI truly follows the upside scenario, it’s likely to fall first and then rebound. The probability of winning with a short position during this window is actually quite high.

The second event is the US January PCE and the Q4 2025 GDP second reading scheduled for March 13.

Let me briefly explain the roles of these two indicators:

PCE is the core reference for the Fed’s policy decisions; at least in the Fed’s view, PCE is more important than CPI. However, this time, the PCE data is for January. The second reading of GDP is to assess whether the US economy is slowing down or weakening.

Of course, PCE can also be seen as a leverage on CPI data. After CPI gives the market a direction, PCE will likely amplify it. But currently, the macro trading circle has a strange rhythm around this Friday’s data:

GDP is revised downward, and PCE not weakening equals a small black swan. That is, the US economy is starting to stall, but the price system isn’t cooperating with the downward trend, which is the stagflation I mentioned earlier.

Stagflation, simply put, means no one is making money, prices are still rising, and rate cuts would lead to higher prices but wouldn’t solve the economic recession. This would leave the Fed helpless.

The most terrifying part is that the probability of this happening is quite high, which is why I believe holding short positions is very necessary, reason number two.

The third is the Middle East war weighing on all assets.

In other words, oil price shocks.

It’s important to emphasize that most valuation systems in modern financial markets are fundamentally built on the implicit assumption that energy costs remain relatively stable.

If oil prices go out of control, the entire logic—covering transportation costs, corporate profit margins, inflation expectations, consumers’ actual purchasing power, and central bank policy space—will lose its coordination.

According to Reuters on March 9, as the Iran-related conflict escalated, oil prices surged about 25% in a single day, with Brent approaching $119.5 per barrel.

About 20% of global oil and gas transportation and supply is affected by risks related to the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is once again factoring in the possibility of long-term supply disruptions, transportation blockages, and OPEC production cuts. This is probably the 21st-century version of this scenario—what used to be dismissed as nonsense.

But this time, it might be different.

Shipping is nearing a standstill, around 150 ships are stranded nearby, at least 3 ships have been attacked, and some traders are suspending shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The key point is that the US dollar has also strengthened significantly during this shock.

Holding BTC is actually okay, but if you hold ETH or other altcoins, it’s best to prepare for the worst.