Yichen: Geopolitical support combined with easing expectations, bulls poised to break through

From a macro perspective, the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict and rising shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to boost market risk aversion sentiment, providing solid safe-haven buying support for gold; at the same time, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold holdings for 16 consecutive months, with medium- and long-term allocation demand continuing to release, further strengthening the foundation for gold prices to rise. The upcoming US February CPI data is widely expected to show a moderate decline in inflation. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it will directly reinforce the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in June, putting pressure on the dollar and opening up greater upside potential for gold.

From a technical perspective, on the four-hour chart, the price remains above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 5155.78, with the MACD double lines crossing upward and operating above the zero line, indicating gradually accumulating bullish momentum with limited pullback strength. The 5220-5230 zone is a short-term key resistance level; once broken, it will open the channel toward 5250 and even previous highs. The 5170-5155 zone below provides strong support; pullbacks are good opportunities for low-cost buying.

Recommendations:
Buy on dips around 5145-5165 in batches, target 5230, 5280

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Operate at your own risk.