#原油价格上涨

International crude oil prices have surged significantly in recent weeks, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 12, 2026, Brent crude oil futures prices have broken through $91 per barrel.

Recent Price Increases and Direct Causes

Latest price performance: At the close of trading on March 11, 2026 (Tuesday), the global benchmark May delivery London Brent crude oil futures settlement price was reported at $91.98 per barrel, up 4.76% for the day; April delivery New York WTI crude oil futures settlement price was reported at $87.25 per barrel, up 4.55% for the day. During the Asian trading session on March 12, oil price gains further expanded, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 8% at one point.

Core driving factors: The direct catalyst for this round of oil price surges is the acute escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran and Iran's strong response have intensified market concerns about the safety of critical oil transport channels, namely the Strait of Hormuz. This strait handles approximately 20% of global crude oil maritime trade, and expectations of disruptions to its passage have severely disturbed global oil supply expectations.

Bullish and bearish factors at play: Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) member states agreed to release a combined 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to stabilize the market, tense geopolitical conditions have overshadowed the impact of this supply increase.

Impact on Industry Chains and the Economy

As a fundamental energy source and chemical feedstock, crude oil price increases generate widespread transmission effects:

Direct benefits for oil and gas industry chains: Rising oil prices directly enhance profit margins for upstream oil and gas extraction enterprises and drive market expectations in the oil and gas equipment and services sectors.

Cost pressures on downstream industries:
Transportation and logistics: Airlines, shipping, and logistics companies face significantly increased fuel costs, eroding profits. For airlines, fuel costs typically account for 30%-40% of total costs.

Chemical industry: Production costs for all chemical products using crude oil as raw material have risen across the board. For example, methanol prices have surged due to limited supply from Iran (the world's major exporter). Meanwhile, production and prices for sulfur, chemical fertilizers (urea, phosphate fertilizers), and plastics (polyethylene, polypropylene) have all been impacted.

Non-ferrous metals: Smelting costs for energy-intensive metals like electrolytic aluminum receive support as energy prices rise.

Macroeconomic and policy level:
Domestic oil price adjustments: Rising international oil prices will directly transmit domestically. According to institutional estimates, the subsequent domestic refined oil price adjustment window is expected to see a significant increase.

Global inflation pressure: Energy price increases may push up costs across logistics, commodity production, and other chains, leading to a rebound in global inflationary pressure. This may affect the monetary policy trajectories of major central banks, for example, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may be delayed.

Market Expectations and Related Investment Areas

Short-term trend attention on geopolitical situation: Oil price movements hereafter are highly dependent on whether Middle East tensions can ease and whether navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz improve. If tensions persist, oil prices have potential to test higher levels.

Performance of related financial markets:
Oil and gas assets: Crude oil futures and related oil and gas themed ETFs typically perform actively during periods of rising oil prices. However, investors should pay attention to changes in premium rates and geopolitical risks.

Alternative energy: High oil prices enhance the substitution attractiveness and economic viability of new energy to a certain extent, potentially stimulating investment and consumption in related sectors.

Safe-haven assets: Geopolitical uncertainty also supports prices of safe-haven assets such as gold.