I'll summarize the market situation: mainly a cyclical rebound after oversold conditions, and an uptrend driven by the crypto market itself (rather than macroeconomic support).

1. Looking at the BTC weekly chart, the "yellow line" is a key resistance/support level. In 21-22, after price broke through $30k and rallied to $60k, it repeatedly tested the "yellow line" before entering a prolonged bear market decline. Using a mechanical approach, this round's "yellow line" is at $60k. Currently after retesting it, there's been a modest rebound, but then what? Does this kick off a major bull market? Compare the two zones in the "red circles" labeled 1 and 2—the answer is obvious. After a modest rebound comes the real price bottom and time-based bear phase. Based on time extrapolation, we should see the true bottom around Q4, approximately October this year.

2. Looking at shorter timeframes, the most important aspect of this week's rally is the influx of offshore capital. ETF inflows reached $700M, stablecoin supply increased $2B—both rising simultaneously indicates synchronized capital inflows from onchain and offchain. This combination confirms this week's rally isn't rotation of existing liquidity, but rather external purchasing power.

However, open interest only saw a modest increase, indicating low leverage participation. Funding rates remain neutral or even negative, and haven't risen with price, showing the market hasn't formed a leveraged long structure. This again confirms "continuous sharp rallies" haven't emerged yet—currently we're just clearing the dense short positions above liquidation levels.

3. Over the past 3 weeks, selling pressure continues but at shrinking scale. Based on declining BTC balances on exchanges, after months of declines, new buyer strength currently dominates.

So what's next? BTC price trends depend mainly on two key factors: the crypto market itself, and the macro financial environment.

1. Will ETF capital inflows and stablecoin supply continue? Is there large-scale selling after the rebound?
2. Changes in US Treasury yields and US dollar index.

For near-term price action, based on CME gap levels and Fibonacci ratios, $74K is the first position. If it holds, we target $79K. What are these levels for? For those wanting to do futures when bored, you can place stop losses at these two levels and try opening shorts; or there's no real need to trade—just wait it out.