I. Conclusion First (3.20 Bitcoin)

Rebound ≠ Crisis averted; more like oversold recovery; short-term can short, long-term add shorts on rallies, don't chase longs, don't bottom fish.

II. Market Logic (One-liner summary)

• From 76k crash 10% down to 69k is natural rebound after oversold, not trend reversal.

• Daily high top, MACD death cross, RSI oversold, bearish structure unchanged.

• Rebound on low volume, locked-in sellers dense, rebound limited, likely encounters resistance at 71.5k–73k then falls.

III. Your Strategy (Follow directly)

1) Short-term (Intraday/4-hour)

• Entry: Light short near 71.3k (aligns with your thinking)

• Stop loss: Above 71.6k (exit on breakout)

• Targets: 70.5k → 70k → 69k (take profits in tranches)

2) Medium-term (1–3 days)

• Keep 30% bottom short position from 74k (your original plan)

• Rebound to 73k–74k, add 20% shorts

• Rebound to 75k–76k, add another 20% (total position ≤50%)

• Unified stop loss: 76.5k (break previous high = trend reversal, exit all)

3) Risk Management Floor (Non-negotiable)

• Total position ≤50%, never fully leveraged short

• Break below 68.5k, can add shorts targeting 65k–66k

• Holds 73k with volume increase, close short-term shorts first, observe

IV. Key Levels (Monitor closely)

• Strong resistance: 71.3k–71.5k (first short-term resistance)

• Mid resistance: 73k–74k (locked-in seller dense zone)

• Strong support: 68.5k–69k (lifeline, break signals deeper short)

V. One-liner Summary

Rebound is your opportunity to short, not reason to bottom fish; short at 71.3k, add shorts at 74k–76k#Gate13周年全球庆典 $BTC