# Trading Reflection: Gold Loss of $300K, My Thoughts

From my previous posts covering the "Gold Trilogy" to "Three Questions on Gold or BTC," I've discussed my process and reasoning for building a gold position.

With an average entry price above $3,000, I took profits once at $5,300, liquidating 30% of my gold position.

The price reached $4,800 midway, then returned to $5,300 after the Iran geopolitical situation, and now has fallen below $4,800.

This represents a $300K drawdown from the peak—unrealized losses equal actual losses if not locked in.

Here's my reflection on the trade:

**Why exactly did gold fall?**

The fundamental avoid-risk logic remains intact—from Iran geopolitical hedging to gold being overpriced on U.S. inflation hedging narratives.

The difference is the U.S.-Iran de-escalation and dollar strength.

These factors alone shouldn't cause such a steep decline. If my previous profit-taking was driven by FOMO and overexpectation, this current pullback might be short-term profit-taking.

My core thesis for holding gold long-term still rests on the existence of chaotic logic—which I've elaborated on before.

Last week, I considered hedging by going long crude oil (also considered shorting silver; see my precious metals and minor metals trading strategy details).

This stems from my geopolitical forecast regarding the Strait of Hormuz: the U.S. cannot hold out and will need to conduct an amphibious assault.

Given gold's sharp current decline, there's also a liquidity crisis at play—I've mentioned before that gold's greatest risk is a liquidity crisis.

Therefore, if crude oil declines next week, I'll go long crude oil (USO.M).

Next week, I'll discuss crude oil trading strategies with amphibious warfare as the expected scenario.