So you shorted gold at 🐎

1. Hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve: The March FOMC meeting lowered the number of rate cuts in 2026 from three to one, with the first cut postponed to December; US Treasury yields broke above 4.3%, and the dollar index rose past 105, causing the cost of holding gold to skyrocket.

2. Concerns about stagflation driven by oil prices: The Middle East conflict pushed Brent crude to $107, inflation expectations heated up, which in turn strengthened expectations of tightening policies, rendering traditional safe-haven logic ineffective.

3. Profit-taking at high levels plus liquidity selling pressure: Previously approached the historical high of $5,589, leading to concentrated position liquidations and forming a negative feedback loop of "decline—liquidation—further decline."

🧭 Trend assessment (short/medium/long-term)

• Short-term (1–3 months): Volatile downward movement, dominated by bears

◦ Support: International $4,090–$4,160; domestic ¥940–¥965 per gram

◦ Resistance: Rebound targets $4,480–$4,500; domestic ¥1,000 per gram round number

◦ Key variables: US CPI, Non-farm Payrolls, Middle East situation, Federal Reserve statements

• Medium-term (6–12 months): Deep correction, bull market not over

◦ Institutional consensus: This correction is a major adjustment within the bull market (historical bull corrections range from 8% to 15%), not a trend reversal

◦ Supporting logic: Continued central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, the Fed will eventually cut rates, geopolitical risks normalized

◦ Target: ANZ Bank forecasts $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026

• Long-term (over 1 year): Structural bull market still ongoing

◦ Global central banks’ de-dollarization, reserve diversification, a declining real interest rate cycle, all enhance the value of gold allocation