When Will the Crypto Bear Market End? Gold Prices May Hold the Answer

Bitcoin has climbed above $70,000 in recent trading, up 3.25% over the past day, yet broader market uncertainty persists. According to Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin—Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange—the current crypto bear market cycle may be approaching its critical inflection point, though the timeline depends on which valuation lens you apply.

The question of when the crypto bear market bottoms has occupied market analysts for months. Historically, such downturns span 12 to 13 months, suggesting potential weakness could extend into late 2026 if measured in US dollar terms. However, when priced against gold, the picture shifts dramatically. Bitcoin’s peak against gold occurred in January 2025. Using the same 12-13 month pattern, a potential bottom could emerge around February 2026, with recovery potentially beginning as early as March.

The Gold vs. Dollar Divergence: Why the Timeline Matters

This discrepancy reflects how different macro forces impact asset valuations. Since the onset of Donald Trump’s new administration, markets have confronted aggressive trade tariffs, internal US institutional tensions, and escalating geopolitical friction with China and Iran. The latter has resulted in ongoing military conflict, sharply elevating the World Uncertainty Index.

Gold has thrived amid this instability, climbing more than 80% over the past year to reach $5,280 per ounce. As capital rotated toward haven assets like bullion, Bitcoin underperformed relative to gold more quickly than it did against the dollar. This reallocation reflects a fundamental shift: investors and institutions seeking protection from systemic risk have favored traditional safe-haven instruments over digital assets.

The Dual Market Reality: Panic Selling Meets Strategic Accumulation

The picture becomes more nuanced when examining actual capital flows within the crypto market itself. Since November, approximately $7.8 billion has exited spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds—representing roughly 12% of the $61.6 billion total. This fear-driven liquidation suggests retail and risk-averse participants are cutting exposure.

Yet simultaneously, major institutional investors are interpreting weakness differently. Abu Dhabi’s prominent investment firms, including Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, increased their spot Bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February, treating market weakness as a strategic buying opportunity. This divergence between panic-induced selling and whale-level accumulation is a classic bear market hallmark.

Decoding the Bottom: What Statistics Suggest

Szuster argues that while the current environment remains uncertain, statistical precedent offers guidance. Historically, periods of peak fear have coincided with market bottoms and subsequent recovery phases. The combination of heavy retail outflows, major geopolitical turmoil, and selective institutional accumulation suggests the market may be approaching what he calls “the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”

This doesn’t necessarily confirm a bottom is here today. However, positioning for a crypto bear market’s end typically begins well before sentiment turns bullish. Dollar-cost averaging strategies—systematically accumulating Bitcoin regardless of short-term price movements—have historically outperformed attempts to time the exact floor, particularly when executed during periods of maximum uncertainty.

Price Targets and Near-Term Catalysts

Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory hinges on macroeconomic factors outside the crypto ecosystem entirely. Oil prices and maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz represent critical variables. Stabilization in these areas could support a test of the $74,000 to $76,000 range, while deterioration could push Bitcoin back toward the mid-$60,000s.

Altcoins have largely tracked Bitcoin’s recent strength, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin each posting approximately 5% gains recently. Broader equity markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, have risen roughly 1.2% in tandem, suggesting some rotation back into risk assets following Trump’s announced five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.

For investors navigating this crypto bear market phase, the message is clear: fear creates opportunity, but only for those with conviction and a systematic approach to capital deployment.