Recently, on-chain data has shown some interesting signals. The realized market capitalization of Bitcoin has been steadily increasing for about two and a half years, but lately it has stabilized. This suggests that the rate at which new funds are entering the market has significantly slowed down, even though prices continue to decline.

Looking more closely at the indicators, there is a metric called the PnL index, which combines the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and the SOPR of short-term and long-term holders. These signals have peaked around mid-2025 and have been trending downward since. Currently, Bitcoin's price is in the $70k range, down over 40% from the all-time high of $126,000 in October last year. To put it simply, the PnL indicator reflects profit and loss, and its movement toward the neutral zone signals that the market has entered a correction phase.

Digging deeper into the on-chain data, long-term holders have realized a total profit of 3.27 million BTC since early 2024. This surpasses the total for the entire 2021 cycle. During this period, spot ETF inflows have largely absorbed this selling pressure, but recently, that inflow has almost stopped. Since December 23, investors have realized a total loss of 69,000 BTC, and the annual net realized profit has fallen from 4.4 million BTC in October to around 2.5 million BTC.

Interestingly, experts are divided in their opinions. Some believe these signals are more likely to lead to a prolonged sideways trading range rather than a sharp decline. Historical patterns show that whenever the PnL index reaches similar high points, the market tends to stay in a range for a long time before a clear direction emerges. However, other analysts suggest that this phenomenon could be due to increasing institutional participation, which has reduced volatility. It might reflect a fundamental change in market structure rather than just a bearish signal.