# BitcoinPriceAnalysis

#比特币价格分析 Seeing Jeff Park's analysis this time, it's quite interesting. Whales are using covered call options to suppress spot prices, while market makers hedge by dumping—this structural selling pressure can't be explained by simple selling.
Thinking carefully, this logic is actually very important for us copy traders. Those OG whales who have held positions for years have now shifted their operation logic from "speculating for gains" to "locking in profits," using options as a tool to earn premiums, which is essentially risk management. What does this tell us? The true big players no longer

#比特币价格分析 Seeing this wave of market analysis, I am reminded of a frequently overlooked phenomenon — even long-term holders are using covered call options to lock in gains. On the surface, it appears to be a prudent strategy, but the underlying structure warrants our deep reflection.
Whales sell call options to collect premiums, while market makers hedge their risks by selling in the spot market, creating an interesting paradox: ETF demand is strong, yet prices are being suppressed. From November's 63% implied volatility down to the current 44%, the market is losing its "fuel" for upward movem

#比特币价格分析 Watching Bitcoin fluctuate around $90,000 repeatedly, that familiar sense of alertness creeps back in.
I've seen this kind of market pattern too many times—sluggish trading volume, weak indicators, and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The technicals show RSI at only 45, and momentum indicators remain negative, which isn't a sign of a strong upward move. Instead, it looks like the whales are testing the bottom of their chips. The key point is that huge red K-line dropping from 92,500 to 89,000, then hovering around 90,500—this hesitation smells of bloodshed. When retail investors

#比特币价格分析 Regarding the Bank of Japan's policies and the trend of Bitcoin, I recently came across some very interesting analytical perspectives.
In the short term, the market indeed faces some adjustment pressures—historical data shows that every time the BOJ raises interest rates, Bitcoin drops by over 20%. But if we look at the bigger picture, the underlying logic is quite thought-provoking.
Glassnode's analysis highlights a key point: the market isn't afraid of tightening itself, but rather of uncertainty. When central bank policies become clear, they actually provide the market with a tran

#比特币价格分析 Looking at the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped to 25%, which is a signal worth paying attention to.
In comparison, the probability of reaching $110,000 is even lower at 4%, while the chance of falling below $80,000 is actually at 22%, indicating that market expectations for the subsequent trend are turning more cautious. What does this inverted probability reflect? Mainly the current on-chain fund flows and institutional holding sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the end of the year is usually a period of liq

#比特币价格分析 Seeing the data from Polymarket, a familiar feeling arose in my mind. With a 25% probability, there's actually an interesting cyclical story behind this number.
I still remember the end of 2017, when everyone was shouting that $100,000 was not a dream. At that time, the enthusiasm far exceeded today’s, and the optimistic sentiment on prediction sites was almost overwhelming. But history tends to repeat similar scripts—when everyone is optimistic about the same price, the market often gives a completely different answer. Looking at this 25% probability now, it somewhat reflects the gr

#比特币价格分析 Damn, the whales are really playing tricks 🤯 With a series of covered call strategies, they’ve forcefully pushed BTC’s upward momentum down to the ground, this is outrageous!
Basically, it’s like this—OGs hold a bunch of Bitcoin, and instead of directly dumping and getting criticized, they use options strategies to arbitrage. As a result, market makers hedge their risks by疯狂ly selling off in the spot market. Now, no matter how strong the ETF buying pressure is, it can’t withstand this wave of selling, and the price is being firmly suppressed 📉
The most heartbreaking part is that th

#比特币价格分析 I was recently confused by the price movement of Bitcoin😅. Seeing such strong ETF buying pressure, why is BTC still unable to rise? I just figured it out today—it's because whales are playing "covered call options" as a fancy strategy!
Simply put: OG holders sell options to collect premiums, and market makers hedge their risk by selling Bitcoin in the spot market. As a result, although buying demand is strong, selling pressure also emerges, which keeps the price tightly suppressed😭
Even more painfully, the implied volatility has dropped from 63% in November to 44% now, indicating t

#比特币价格分析 The probability of Bitcoin rising again to $100,000 this year has already dropped to 25%, how pessimistic do you have to be to consider that? In my opinion, market sentiment is indeed shifting, and the forecasted probability of dropping below $80,000 is also 22%, indicating that everyone is feeling uncertain.
Based on this data, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 by the end of the year, and breaking through new highs is indeed quite challenging. $110,000 is even more of a dream level, with only a 4% chance, which can basically be considered nonexistent.
The i

#比特币价格分析 Bitcoin has fallen below 90,000. The key support level at 86,000 will depend on whether it can hold in the coming week. U.S. economic data and central bank meetings are approaching, and currently, market trading volume is sluggish as everyone waits for signals.
From a technical perspective, if the 86,000 level is broken, there could be a deeper correction afterward, which will significantly impact the short-term interaction rhythm. However, this kind of volatility is actually a good opportunity to accumulate—low-risk projects have lower interaction costs, and the competition for aird