ETH market experiences significant fluctuations: Institutional whales get on board and technical signals intertwine.

Event Review 📜

On the evening of August 20, 2025, the price of ETH experienced a significant fluctuation. Starting from testing the support at around $4100, it quickly broke through the key level of $4300, followed by a local pullback to $4281. The entire process was marked by the influence of institutional funds, large whale orders, and high leverage operations. Multiple traders in the market sequentially released information signaling long positions, while massive ETH transfers and leveraged trading operations continually validated the active entry of funds, driving the price up rapidly. Reports indicated that starting from 22:21, ETH found support at a key resistance level, and then from 22:30, institutional funds and whales entered the market, leading to a sharp price increase, reaching a short-term peak at 23:25, before experiencing a slight pullback at 23:45.

Timeline ⏰

22:21: The market witnessed ETH successfully turning resistance into support after retesting around $4100, indicating that bullish sentiment may be approaching.

22:27: Some traders have issued long signals, with entry prices and stop-loss targets announced successively, increasing market attention.

22:30: The ETH price stabilized in the range of $4157–$4158, with institutional funds beginning to actively intervene.

22:30–23:16: In just 46 minutes, the price surged from $4157 to $4290, demonstrating a strong capital driving effect.

23:07–23:09: Coinbase Institutional continuously transferred a large amount of ETH to Coinbase, confirming that institutional large orders are driving the market.

23:16: "Rolling Warehouse Brother" opened a long position of 3694 ETH with 25x leverage, further strengthening the technical breakout signal.

23:22: ETH price has broken through 4300 USD for the first time, confirming that buying pressure continues to strengthen.

23:25: The price once surged to $4307, reaching a short-term high.

23:45: The market experienced a brief pullback, with the ETH price stabilizing around $4281.14.

Reason Analysis 🔎

The main reasons behind the current volatility of ETH are as follows:

Institutional funds and whale orders boost Recent large-scale ETH transfers and high-leverage operations (such as "Rolling Warehouse Guy" using 25x leverage to go long) have shown that institutions and whales have a clear expectation of market trends. After key resistance levels were broken, buying power quickly concentrated, creating a capital linkage effect that drove prices to rise significantly in a very short period.

Expectations of macroeconomic policy and fluctuations in market sentiment At the same time, news regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and regulatory dynamics has frequently emerged, sparking debates among investors about future liquidity expectations. Some market participants believe that expectations for interest rate cuts may lead to a comprehensive market recovery, while others are concerned that regulatory measures and policy uncertainty will cause the market to shift towards cautious operations. This divergence in expectations directly impacts the sentiment of market participants and exacerbates price volatility.

Technical Analysis 🛠️

This technical analysis is based on the Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick chart data:

Indicator Performance

The J value is in an extremely overbought state, indicating a higher risk of a short-term correction.

The KDJ indicator shows a divergent state, indicating that upward momentum is increasing.

Although the OBV indicator has issued a sell signal by crossing below the moving average line, the overall large buying volume still supports the price to move upward.

Moving Average Situation

Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) show a bullish alignment, indicating a clear short-term bullish signal.

Although the price is below the EMA120 moving average, it is currently operating within the EMA24/EMA52 range, indicating a strong short to medium-term trend.

K-line patterns and trading volume

A doji appears on the candlestick chart, indicating strong market hesitation, which may signal a potential trend reversal.

The trading volume has significantly increased compared to the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating strengthened short to medium-term activity, with large institutional orders and explosive order data confirming the capital frenzy in the market.

Large orders and high-value transactions

In the last hour, the total amount of orders across the network has exceeded tens of millions of dollars, with large transactions indicating a net inflow of $50 million from the main force, further confirming the active involvement of funds.

Market Outlook 🔮

In the short term, ETH is likely to oscillate between the range of $4300 and $4370. The short-term overbought condition may prompt some pullbacks, but if institutional funds and large whales continue to intervene, there is hope for further gains. In the medium term, as macro policy dynamics and market sentiment gradually become clearer, ETH may find its upward momentum again, but at the same time, high volatility also indicates that risks cannot be ignored. Investors should pay attention when operating:

Closely monitor key technical indicators and changes in trading volume, and reasonably adjust take profit and stop loss strategies.

Beware of short-term pullback risks, and build positions in batches to avoid potential losses from significant fluctuations.

Flexibly respond to changes in market sentiment by combining macroeconomic policies and liquidity changes.

Summary

The recent volatility in the ETH market reflects the combined effects of multiple factors such as institutional funds, large whale orders, and high leverage operations, accompanied by rapid fluctuations in policy expectations and market sentiment. From a technical perspective, multiple indicators based on a 45-minute candlestick chart show strong short-term buying power, but risk signals are also present. Looking ahead, investors should place a high emphasis on risk control and flexibly adjust their positions to steadily seize opportunities in this wave of fluctuating market.