XRP falls below the key support of 3.05 USD! The trend line on the hourly chart is in trouble, can the long positions hold the defense line at 2.97 USD?

XRP price rebounded from a low of $2.82 but failed to break through the $3.05 resistance, currently sitting around $3 and below the 100-hour moving average. Technical indicators show that the MACD is in the bearish zone and momentum is weakening. If it cannot reclaim the $3.05 level, the price may further dip to the $2.84 support.

1. Price Trend Review: Rebound Encountered Key Resistance Area

The price of XRP recently retreated from a high of $3.126, touching a low of $2.824 before attempting a Rebound. Although it successfully broke through the $2.92 and $2.95 levels and stood above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend (from 3.126 to 2.824), it ultimately faced resistance in the $3.05 resistance zone. This level coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, forming an important pressure point on the technical front. Currently, the price hovers around $3, with both bulls and bears contesting at the 100-hour moving average.

2. Technical Analysis: Trendline Support and Indicator Signal Divergence

(Source: TradingView)

On the hourly chart, XRP/USD has formed a key bullish trend line, with the support level located around $2.97. If this trend line is broken, it could accelerate the fall. The technical indicators show conflicting signals:

1. MACD technical indicator: still in the bearish zone and momentum further weakens, suggesting bears are dominant;

2. RSI indicator: Currently slightly above the 50 neutral line, indicating that short-term buying pressure still exists but is limited in strength. This divergence suggests that prices may enter a consolidation phase.

3. Key Price Levels: The Battle Between Support and Resistance Intensifies

According to the technical structure, it is necessary to focus on the following price levels:

1. Upper resistance: $3.05 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement + psychological level), $3.10 (breakout confirmation point), $3.12-3.15 (Rebound continuation target);

2. Support below: $2.97 (trendline support), $2.92 (previous rebound starting point), $2.84 (recent low), $2.78 (key level for deep pullback). If the price breaks through $3.10 with volume, it may trigger a new round of upward movement; conversely, if it falls below $2.92, it may dip into the $2.78 area.

IV. Market Outlook: September brings both seasonal risks and opportunities.

Despite the short-term rebound pressure on XRP, it is important to note the historical volatility pattern of September (refer to the "Red September" concept in the ETH analysis). If it can stabilize within the support range of $2.97-$2.92, and with the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment improving, there is still hope for a restart of the upward trend in October. Traders should closely monitor the Bitcoin market trends and the XRP ecosystem fundamentals, with short-term operations primarily focused on risk control.

[Conclusion]

XRP is currently at a critical technical watershed, with a resistance of $3.05 and a support of $2.97 forming a triangular convergence pattern. The divergence in the MACD and RSI indicators reflects that the market is about to choose a direction. It is recommended to wait for a volume breakout signal before positioning for a trend trade. If it falls below $2.92, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of an accelerated decline, while holding steady maintains the opportunity to challenge $3.10.