XRP is expected to become a market leader? Analysts propose phased rise targets: looking up to $9.69.

In the latest issue of "Weekly Insights", analyst @CryptoinsightUK predicts that XRP will be at the core of the next market pump. He outlines an Elliott Wave Theory structure with target price levels of approximately $6.50 for the third wave, stabilizing above $5 for the fourth wave, and around $9.69 for the fifth wave. While he acknowledges that Bitcoin may retrace in the short term, he believes that any whipsaw will trigger a strong rise, with strong coins like XRP benefiting from it.

Key Argument: The Relative Strength of XRP

(Source: TradingView)

The author clearly points out that XRP has been leading in this cycle and is "about to begin its next major pump." He compares the charts of XRP and Ethereum (ETH), noting significant differences: XRP remains strong near its historical high, has broken through previous highs and the swing high of $2.70, and is currently consolidating above it. In contrast, Ethereum is still struggling to recover and hold its historical high.

He emphasized that this relative strength is crucial and believes that XRP is likely to continue outperforming the largest altcoins in the market. In addition, speculation about an XRP spot ETF "could arrive in September or October," along with potential favorable policy developments, may add upward momentum to the token.

Macroeconomic Background: Risk Appetite Sentiment Fully Returns

The analysis report places the rise prospects of XRP under a broader "risk appetite" macro background. The author points out that major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 are either in or have entered an expansion phase, with monthly RSI overbought historically indicating a strong bull market activity for "at least several months, if not a prolonged period." He calls this a "clear signal, a green light for risk appetite."

In terms of cross-asset signals, @CryptoinsightUK emphasized the directional correlation between Bitcoin and gold, even though gold is often viewed as a "safe haven" asset. He believes that China's demand for gold and the depreciation of Western currencies are strengthening the long-term bullish logic for Bitcoin. Historically, the gold bottom has averaged leading the Bitcoin bottom by about 126 days; based on the latest cycle, the bottom window for Bitcoin may be around September 15, 2025.

The liquidity chart remains key. He believes there is "extremely dense" liquidity above Bitcoin, and once the current consolidation range is resolved, "the trend is likely to be swift and aggressive," with the roadmap "quickly" pushing BTC to break through $144,000 and higher.

On-chain Indicators and Market Signals

Regarding the breadth of the altcoin market, the author uses Total2 (the total market capitalization of altcoins) as an analogy. He believes that the current market structure is similar to the "orange circle" phase of the previous cycle; from that point to the peak of the cycle, the total market capitalization of altcoins rose by about 350%. If this were to repeat, Total2 would reach approximately $7.73 trillion—in such an environment, "XRP will be one of the clear leaders in the next rise of this market cycle," provided that Bitcoin sets a new high and Total2 successfully breaks through.

The "This Week's Charts" released at the same time analyzes the short-term conditions of the market and how it will affect XRP. The reserve of stablecoin exchanges on the Ethereum and Tron networks has reached a historic high, totaling approximately $66 billion (of which about $53 billion is USDT and $13 billion is USDC). This massive "dry powder" may chase a rise upon breakthrough or provide a buffer when Bitcoin eventually retreats to around $105,000.

A concerning signal is the "cliff-like drop" in the 30-day change of large whale holdings recently - while this does not mean disaster, it is still "worrisome" and cannot be ignored. Meanwhile, the market's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is declining, indicating that the market is "retracing" the profits of the past ten months; returning to the "yellow zone" (<0.5) could catalyze the next parabolic rise. Structurally, the realized price band has yet to reach its upper limit, which supports the view that Bitcoin will break through $200,000 in this cycle.

Conclusion

In the complex market environment where various factors intertwine, the wave count of XRP and its image as a leader run throughout. If the final whipsaw of Bitcoin can resolve upwards, Total2 breaks through new cyclical highs, and ETF and policy catalysts continue to direct funds towards XRP, then the target price set (the third wave reaching $6.5, the fourth wave stabilizing above $5, and the fifth wave extending to $9.69) will become a high-confidence roadmap. For the author, all these elements combined indicate that in the current market, "any pullback is a buying opportunity"; once the consolidation range is resolved, the path of least resistance will be upwards, and XRP is poised to lead the rise.