The annual volume of the prediction market reaches 4 billion USD! The CEO of Robinhood predicts everything will go on-chain, discussing industry trends at TOKEN2049.

(This article is reproduced from Crypto City "TOKEN2049 Robinhood CEO: Everything may go on-chain, vigorously laying out tokenization + prediction market"

Robinhood's CEO is optimistic about the prospects of asset tokenization and prediction markets. Europe is taking the lead in equity tokenization, with the prediction market expected to surpass $4 billion in trading volume within a year, aiming to create a global financial super app.

The Next Chapter of Financial Democratization: The Irresistible Trend of Asset Tokenization

Robinhood founder and CEO Vlad Tenev described asset tokenization as "an unstoppable freight train" during a fireside chat at TOKEN2049, predicting that it will ultimately sweep through the entire financial system.

He believes that the integration of encryption technology and traditional finance is an inevitable trend, and the boundaries between the two will gradually blur in the future, ultimately everything will be on-chain in some form.

Tenev pointed out that although the concept of asset tokenization has been discussed for many years, actual action has been relatively slow. He cited stablecoins as an example, explaining that their essence is a tokenized real-world asset: the US dollar. Just as stablecoins provide overseas users with a convenient channel to access US dollar assets and solidify the global dominance of the US dollar, the tokenization of assets such as stocks, real estate, and even private company equity will also become the default way for investors outside the US to access US stocks.

Robinhood has taken the lead in the European market by launching tokenized versions of major US stocks, and even tokenizing equity from well-known private companies such as SpaceX and OpenAI, gifting them to EU users.

Tenev explains that, from a technical perspective, the tokenization of real estate is very similar to the tokenization of private companies, with no significant difference in complexity. The main obstacles to promotion currently lie in the regulatory clarity and licensing issues across various jurisdictions.

He predicts that Europe will lead this wave and expand its functions globally, while the United States, due to its relatively well-established financial infrastructure, may lag behind other major economies in terms of comprehensive tokenization, despite the urgent need for reform. Tenev believes that within the next 5 years, most major markets will establish corresponding regulatory frameworks, but achieving nearly 100% adoption may still take over ten years.

The rise of prediction markets is reshaping the finance, gambling, and media industries.

In addition to asset tokenization, the prediction market business that Robinhood has been actively promoting recently has also achieved remarkable growth. Tenev revealed that this business generated an annualized revenue of 200 million dollars, as reported by Piper Sandler, within less than a year of its launch, with a cumulative event contract trading volume surpassing 4 billion dollars, contributing 2 billion dollars in just the third quarter. This achievement highlights the high interest of retail investors in this type of emerging product.

Prediction markets initially focused on political events such as the U.S. presidential election and achieved great success. Tenev emphasizes that the power of prediction markets lies in their ability to allow users to directly monetize their opinions and unique intuitions. For example, investors might anticipate that the election of a certain candidate will impact the market, but the manner of that impact can be elusive; through prediction markets, they can trade directly on election outcomes without having to indirectly guess the response of asset prices.

There are doubts from the outside world about whether the prediction market will only be a flash in the pan during election years, but Tenev believes its potential goes far beyond that. Now, the prediction market on Robinhood has expanded its features to sports, culture, and even the artificial intelligence industry, for example, users can trade "which will be the best AI model."

In response to external criticism that the prediction market blurs the lines between finance and gambling, Tenev stated that this significant innovation integrates multiple elements:

It has the shadow of traditional sports betting, and like active trading, it is conducted on exchanges, while also having the characteristics of news media, as many people use it not for trading but to obtain real-time information about the possible outcomes of future events. He believes that the prediction market is a brand new hybrid with the potential to completely change these three major industries.

Create a super financial App, embracing human creativity in the AI era.

Looking ahead to the future of Robinhood, Tenev's goal is to transform it into a "super financial app," a one-stop platform where users from around the world can store all their funds and assets.

He pointed out that Robinhood currently has 9 business lines with annual revenues exceeding 100 million dollars, and new businesses such as the prediction market are growing rapidly, which is expected to significantly increase this number in the future.

The company's long-term strategy is not only to strive for a leading position in active trading industries such as prediction markets and options, but also to become the best choice for users to store retirement funds, manage passive investments, and meet banking needs.

In the cryptocurrency industry, Tenev believes that the infrastructure layer of traditional financial institutions reacts slowly because they need to consider numerous existing stakeholders, which requires Robinhood to engage in deeper vertical integration, such as acquiring the Bitstamp exchange and building its own blockchain, to remain at the forefront of innovation.

When discussing the impact of AI, Tenev maintains an optimistic attitude. He believes that people should not be afraid of AI and cites chess and radiology as examples: although AI has already surpassed humans in both industries, chess is more popular than ever, and the demand and salaries for radiologists continue to grow.

He predicts that even in the software engineering industry, which is considered to be severely impacted by AI, the number of practitioners in 10 years will be greater than it is now, provided that they must be proficient in AI tools.

Tenev strongly believes in human creativity and encourages everyone, especially the younger generation, to actively try and create, viewing AI as a tool to prepare for their future through practice.

This article predicts that the annual trading volume of the prediction market will reach 4 billion USD! The CEO of Robinhood predicts that everything will be on-chain, and TOKEN2049 discusses industry trends, first appearing in Chain News ABMedia.