Gate on-chain observation ( on October 22, ): Insider Whale short order increased to $226 million; "Brother Maji" Huang Licheng suffered a loss of $13.5 million.

Under the continuous impact of geopolitical news, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a tumultuous 24 hours. On-chain data shows that Whales are making large-scale Position adjustments by taking advantage of market Fluctuation, with the “BTC OG” Whale realizing a profit of 6 million dollars after accurately grasping the market turning point, while “Mahjong Brother” Huang Licheng faced a massive loss of 13.5 million dollars due to high Margin Trading. The market overall shows a clear divergence pattern of “smart money shorting, retail investors going long,” with institutional capital flows indicating a cautious attitude.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

The long-short game intensifies, Whale accurately times the market

The Bitcoin market has shown significant fluctuations driven by geopolitical news, with Whales demonstrating precise timing ability:

· “BTC OG” Whale perfectly grasped the turning point: This whale's associated address has gradually closed its long position of $179 million BTC and $120 million ETH since 1 AM today, and by 4 AM, all positions have been closed with profits exceeding $6 million. Meanwhile, its main address continues to hold a 10x BTC short position, increasing the position size from $124 million to $235 million at 1 AM today. Subsequently, the BTC price continued to decline, and this short position has recorded a floating return rate of over 30%.

· “1011 Insider Whale” doubles shorting position: This whale increased its Bitcoin short position by 10 times to 2000 BTC, worth approximately 226 million USD, with an opening price of 111,190.3 USD, currently floating profit of 6.15 million USD. Its previous shorting profit of 160 million USD before the flash crash on 10.11 has drawn significant market attention to its movements.

· Andrew Kang Flexible Strategy Adjustment: Mechanism Capital co-founder Andrew Kang related address shorted BTC 230 coins to take profits, reducing the position by about 25.32 million USD, and added over 1.5 million USD to ENA long position 4 hours ago to hedge risks. The address opened a new 40x BTC short position at 113,200 USD at 1 AM today, with a position size of about 29.9 million USD, currently showing a floating return rate of over 160%.

Smart money movement indicates a cautious attitude

Multiple smart money addresses show a clear risk-averse tendency at the current position:

· “Calm Order King” once again shorts at the top: this smart money address opened a short position at an average price of 113,200 USD with 40x BTC, totaling about 159 coins, with a nominal position value exceeding 17.9 million USD. In the past 9 hours, this address also slightly increased its SOL short position, with the current nominal position value around 27.6 million USD, and a floating yield rate close to 50%. During two slight pullbacks, it gradually closed positions, and in the last 2 hours, it rolled out profits, demonstrating superb position management skills.

· Long-term holders continue to reduce holdings: Since October 15, long-term holders of Bitcoin have reduced their holdings by another 28,000 BTC, reflecting an excessive net selling phenomenon among long-term holders, which is usually seen as a mid-term bearish signal.

Macro and Institutional Flow

The capital flow at the institutional level shows obvious risk-averse characteristics:

· BlackRock Large Asset Transfer: BlackRock has deposited 2,854 BTC (approximately $314 million) and 29,639 ETH (approximately $115 million) to CEX in the past 24 hours, such large-scale transfers often signal institutional-level position adjustments.

· Ancient Whale Takes Profit: OG Whale Owen Gunden deposits 364 BTC worth 40.25 million USD into CEX. The whale currently still holds 10,959 BTC worth 1.19 billion USD, and this partial profit-taking may be based on the judgment of a short-term price peak.

· WBTC Whale Clears Position: A whale that has accumulated WBTC since 2020 (address starting with 0x59B) is suspected to have cleared its position, with a cost as low as $53,180. This address built a position of 352.43 WBTC at an average price of $53,180 from 2020.09 to 2025.04, for a total value of $18.74 million; then in the past two weeks, it deposited $113,463 into CEX in four transactions, which would yield a profit of $21.245 million if sold, resulting in a five-year return rate of 113%.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

Whale Behavior Focus: High Margin Trading Brings Painful Lessons Again

Ethereum whales show polarized results in high Margin Trading:

· Huang Licheng's margin trading liquidation losses worsen: “Maji Brother” Huang Licheng faced another account halving in less than a day. His address established a new HYPE long position at a high in the early morning and added to his position by chasing the rise in ETH. Due to the ETH position approaching liquidation, he was forced to close the HYPE long position at a loss, using all remaining funds to increase his ETH position to average down his cost. Currently, the average price of the ETH position has been pushed up to $3952, and the floating loss on this position has exceeded 64%, with a liquidation price of $3749. He subsequently closed the HYPE (10x) long position, incurring a loss of $123,000, bringing the total loss to $13.5 million.

· “Inverse” Whale performs high buy low sell for the third time: A certain Whale has performed the tragic operation of high buy low sell for ETH three times. This morning, they bought 7,221 ETH at an average price of $4,036, after which ETH fell to $3,840, resulting in a floating loss of $1.4 million. Their previous two operations also ended with cutting losses and clearing positions, accumulating significant losses.

· New long position attempts to catch the bottom: Whale “0xd8e” deposited USDC worth 5.438 million dollars into HyperLiquid and established a long position in ETH worth 2.3 million dollars with 25x Margin Trading, while setting continuous unfilled orders for additional positions between 3530 dollars and 4296 dollars, indicating recognition of mid to long-term value.

Institutional Level Capital Flow

· Ethereum Foundation Large Transfer: The Ethereum Foundation transferred 160,000 ETH (worth $654 million) from the main wallet to an address starting with “0xc06”; currently, there are no further actions. Several large transfers in the past four months have come from this address, including 7,000 ETH operating funds to the non-profit development organization Argot Collective, 10,000 ETH sold over-the-counter to SharpLink, and 10,000 ETH transferred to Kraken for sale.

· Bitmine level continues to accumulate: It may belong to Bitmine, the first institutional holder of Ethereum, which has received 45,814 ETH worth 177.62 million USD from FalconX, indicating that institutional investors are still utilizing price adjustments to accumulate.

Network Activities and Funding Support

· Tether continues to issue: This morning, Tether Treasury minted 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum blockchain. Since the flash crash on October 11, Tether Treasury has minted a total of 5 billion USDT on the Ethereum blockchain, providing ample liquidity support to the market.

· Whales continue to accumulate: The whale address starting with 0xAeA5 has withdrawn 7,527 ETH (approximately 29.09 million USD) from CEX again, accumulating a total of 11,860 ETH (approximately 46.26 million USD) over the past week, indicating that large holders remain optimistic about the long-term value of Ethereum.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Public Chain Ecosystem: SOL Faces Shorting Pressure

Solana (SOL) is facing pressure from smart money concentrated on shorting:

· “Calm Order King” increases shorting efforts: this smart money address has added to its SOL short position, with a current notional holding value of approximately 27.6 million USD and a fluctuation yield close to 50%, indicating its pessimistic outlook on SOL's short-term trend.

· Large SOL transfer draws attention: A certain entity withdrew 2.1 million SOL (approximately 400 million USD) from a CEX, such a scale of transfer often indicates position adjustments by whales or institutions.

DeFi and RWA Sector: Institutional Rebalancing is Obvious

· Market maker GSR bulk transfers tokens: Market maker GSR deposits various tokens to CEX, including 405,000 UNI (approximately $2.64 million), 6,000 AAVE (approximately $1.38 million), and 682,000 WLD (approximately $636,000), possibly for market making needs or position adjustment.

· Andrew Kang increased his position in ENA for hedging: Andrew Kang's related address simultaneously shorted BTC while increasing his long position in ENA by over 1.5 million USD, demonstrating his differentiated allocation strategy in the DeFi sector.

Meme coins and specific projects: Whale takes profits

· HYPE Whale cashes out: Investors/institutions that received an allocation of 1 million SOL have sold 733,000 HYPE (approximately 26.31 million USD) again, and then cross-chain converted USDC back to Solana to buy 142,000 SOL. This address received an investment allocation of 1 million SOL in June 2020 and achieved considerable returns on HYPE.

· Huang Licheng switches to HYPE long position: After closing his ETH long position for profit, “Brother Ma Ji” Huang Licheng opens a 10x leveraged long position in HYPE tokens, indicating his attempt to recover losses through high-risk trading.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overview: Technical Adjustments Driven by Geopolitics

The current market is primarily driven by geopolitical news, exhibiting typical characteristics of a “news-driven market”:

· Whale shorting dominates market sentiment: Multiple whale addresses with precise timing capabilities consistently increase their short positions, with a total scale exceeding 500 million USD, creating strong psychological pressure on the market.

· The liquidation process of margin trading continues: the liquidation of high-leverage long positions has intensified market fluctuations, and the painful lessons of well-known traders like Huang Licheng warn of the risks of using high leverage in the current environment.

· Institutional capital attitudes are polarized: Although institutions like Bitmine continue to accumulate, large transfers from traditional institutions such as BlackRock indicate a cautious attitude, and the bulk token transfers by market makers may also increase market selling pressure.

Trend Analysis: Key Support Level Under Test

Based on on-chain data and position structure, the market trend for the next 1-3 trading days is projected as follows:

· Key position of Bitcoin: BTC needs to hold the support range of $108,000, if it fails to do so, it may test the $105,000 to $106,000 area. The resistance above is at $113,000 to $115,000, and a breakthrough requires significant positive catalysts.

· Ethereum liquidation risk: There is a significant long liquidation risk for ETH below $3850, especially as the liquidation price for whales like Huang Licheng is at $3749, which could trigger a chain reaction if reached. Resistance is at $4050 to $4100.

· Altcoins under selective pressure: SOL needs to hold the support at 180 USD, otherwise it may drop to 170 USD. Meme coins like HYPE face further adjustment pressure after the Whale takes profits.

· Opportunities and risks coexist: The continuous issuance of USDT provides liquidity support for the market. If there are positive developments in geopolitics, short covering may trigger a rapid rebound. However, close attention should be paid to the movements of the $226 million short position of the “1011 insider Whale”.

V. Conclusion

On-chain data clearly depicts the current market pattern of “smart money shorting, retail investors going long.” When geopolitical news triggers significant fluctuations in the market, whales with informational advantages and precise timing capabilities achieve substantial profits through flexible long-short conversions, while retail traders relying on high leverage continuously provide liquidity to the market. The case of Huang Licheng's $13.5 million loss once again proves that in a news-driven market, risk management is far more important than the pursuit of profits.

The brutality of the market lies in its tendency to amplify human cognitive biases at specific moments—overconfidence, herd mentality, and loss aversion. When ancient whales choose to cash out after a 113% return over five years, when institutional investors strategically accumulate during price adjustments, and when high-leverage traders struggle on the brink of liquidation, we see differentiated perceptions of risk and return among market participants at different levels. In this increasingly evident asymmetric information market environment, ordinary investors may need to focus more on the real flow of funds revealed by on-chain data, rather than being swayed by short-term price fluctuations and social media sentiment.