Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Isn’t Over Yet, Says Cryptoquant’s Onchain Data

Bitcoin’s short-term onchain momentum has weakened, but long-term demand remains solid, according to the latest Cryptoquant report, indicating that the current bull cycle appears to be in its late-stage accumulation phase rather than nearing a definitive end.

Bitcoin’s Cycle Shows Signs of Maturity, Not Exhaustion

Cryptoquant’s analysis highlights that mid-to-large bitcoin holders—dubbed the “Dolphin cohort,” or addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—are now the dominant market force, controlling roughly 26% of circulating supply, or about 5.16 million BTC.

These entities, which include exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and institutional investors, have accumulated more than 681,000 BTC in 2025 alone, while smaller holders have reduced exposure.

Source: Cryptoquant.com report. This divergence highlights how institutional bitcoin demand continues to anchor BTC’s structure, even as retail participation cools. Historically, Cryptoquant notes, a slowdown in Dolphin accumulation often precedes distribution phases or corrections, whereas renewed inflows tend to precede rallies to new highs.

Despite recent weakness in short-term metrics, the report emphasizes that structural demand remains resilient. The Dolphin cohort’s annualized holdings growth is currently 907,000 BTC—well above the 365-day moving average of 730,000 BTC—indicating the bull trend has not yet broken down.

In previous market peaks, such as 2021, the annual growth of Dolphin balances fell below its long-term average, signaling an exhaustion of institutional demand. The current data suggest otherwise: long-term accumulation remains intact, pointing to a mature but sustained bullish structure.

While the larger picture remains constructive, short-term indicators show momentum softening. The Dolphin cohort’s 30-day balance growth has slipped below its 30-day moving average, reflecting waning short-term demand. Bitcoin faces resistance near $115,000 and support at $100,000, with a potential deeper correction toward $75,000 if that threshold breaks.

Cryptoquant analysts conclude that a renewed acceleration in accumulation—especially from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and large holders—will be key for bitcoin to retest and surpass its $126,000 peak. Absent that, the market may remain in a consolidation phase typical of late-cycle behavior.

FAQ ⏰

• **What does Cryptoquant’s report say about bitcoin’s cycle?**Cryptoquant’s data shows bitcoin’s bull cycle is maturing but not finished, with strong long-term demand still intact.
• **Who are the “Dolphin cohort” investors?**They’re addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 bitcoin, including ETFs, corporations, and large holders.
• **How much bitcoin have Dolphin holders accumulated in 2025?**The cohort added more than 681,000 BTC this year, reaching about 5.16 million BTC in total holdings.
• **What levels are key for bitcoin’s short-term trend?**Resistance sits near $115,000, while support is around $100,000, with $75,000 as a deeper correction target.