Bull and Bear Battle at $106,000! Is Bitcoin about to find its true direction?

Original title: Bull or bear? Today’s $106k retest could decide Bitcoin’s fate

Original Author: Akiba

Source: cryptoslate

Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy

Bitcoin regards $106,400 as a key pivot point in this cycle, serving both as a resistance level and a support level.

The price has consolidated multiple times around this level, breaking through it after retesting and expanding to the next channel range; when the price falls below this level, it often needs to go through a “repair period” before rising again.

The chart below shows the price channels that have had the most impact on Bitcoin since the beginning of 2024, with $106,400 marked by a solid yellow line.

In mid-December 2024, the price of Bitcoin broke above $106,000 for the first time after continuously rising and surpassing the area below $100,000. After breaking this level, the price briefly reached $107,800, but failed to hold when retesting $106,400, and subsequently fell back to the mid-$90,000 range.

In late January 2025, Bitcoin once again exhibited a similar trend, but with more frequent fluctuations. After attempting to rise from below to 106,400 USD, Bitcoin stalled, then extended during the session to the 108,300 USD range, but failed again during the retest.

Despite the high noise within the channel range, the pivot point of $106,400 has still played a role in organizing market trends—the price has repeatedly fallen after reaching this level.

This consistent behavior over several weeks makes this line a valuable reference in risk management.

By late May 2025, this relationship had reversed. The price tested $106,400 from below twice, then retested from above twice, and subsequently used this level as support multiple times.

The rebound peaked at $111,900 and $110,300, but after the sixth retest, the momentum weakened, and the price began to decline gradually.

At this stage, $106,400 acts like a “floor.” As long as the closing price remains above it, bears find it difficult to effectively push lower into a more bearish range. However, after this “floor” was ultimately breached at the end of the month, the price recovery period noticeably extended, further confirming that losing this pivotal level would change the market's rhythm.

In June 2025, it once again demonstrated the characteristic of switching between support and resistance at $106,400.

In the middle of the month, Bitcoin briefly fell below this level, then was blocked four times (one of which briefly broke above). By the end of the month, the price had returned to above $106,400, stabilizing multiple times at intraday highs, and further climbing to $108,300 and $109,400.

The price movements after each backtest are relatively orderly - this is a typical characteristic when the market respects a widely watched pivot point. For traders waiting for confirmation signals at this level, if the price falls back below $106,400, their entry logic will be clearly negated; however, if this level stabilizes, the target levels for the upper channel range will also be clearly visible.

This brought Bitcoin into the price discovery phase, ultimately reaching a high of $126,000 during this cycle. After that, until the event on October 10 where “Trump's trade tariffs caused $19 billion to evaporate,” Bitcoin retraced to $106,400.

The trend from October to early November 2025 shows another side.

The price dropped sharply from a high position, quickly plunging to $106,400 before rebounding sharply to $115,000. Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize at this pivot point multiple times, and as of the time of writing, it is nearing its eighth test.

As of now, since reaching the high of 126,000 dollars, every time it tests 106,400 dollars, the price quickly rebounds to the range of 110,000 – 115,000 dollars.

What is concerning is that Bitcoin has never been able to hold above $106,400 after eight consecutive retests.

These repeated touches are significant because they compress a series of complex market variables into a core reference point.

In the current chart framework, $106,400 roughly coincides with the midline of the current channel group, which means it is near a “fair value” range—where buyer and seller liquidity is relatively balanced.

When the price is “accepted” by the market above this level, the path of least resistance will shift to the next range above; conversely, when the price is rejected or falls below this level, the market often needs to accumulate transactions and participation below before the bulls can regain dominance.

From a series of chart screenshots, this pattern can be summarized as follows:

For traders who make trading decisions based on price ranges, the approach is actually quite straightforward.

Once the price breaks above $106,400 and is confirmed during the retest, the market's focus will naturally shift to a series of levels above: $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500, which correspond to the dashed yellow steps in the chart.

If the price breaks below this pivot point again, the focus will shift back to the support areas below: $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, which have supported market liquidity multiple times during the previous downturns.

This framework does not predict direction – it defines areas with higher execution efficiency and positions with clearer stop-loss logic.

This level also helps traders find balance when momentum indicators or funding rate signals contradict each other.

When the momentum weakens but the price remains above $106,400, as long as the pivot point is not breached, the upward channel remains open;

When the positions in the derivatives market are excessively crowded, and the price is unable to rise back to this level for a long time, the initiative remains in the hands of the bears until the market “accepts” this price range again.

This provides a pragmatic approach to risk exposure management that does not overly rely on short-term indicators.

It is important to emphasize that this does not confer a special status to a particular number, but rather is based on the fact that this price level has been repeatedly validated within the current market structure. Markets evolve, and pivot points will also shift as distributions change.

However, the channels shown in the chart have effectively depicted the intraday support and resistance ranges over the past two years.

The value of 106,400 USD is reflected in the price action of the market repeatedly returning to this point, the reactions formed around it, and the clear reference it provides for planning the next trading steps.

Therefore, $106,400 seems to be acting as the “balance point” in this cycle, and the price is indeed continuing to operate around this pivot.