Bitunix Analyst: US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) strength and weakness intertwine, interest rate path falls into a deadlock again, BTC fluctuates after a decline.

BlockBeats News, on November 21, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that 119,000 non-farm jobs were added in September, far exceeding the market estimate of 52,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four-year high. This employment report, released after the government shutdown, has become the last key data before the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). The data itself is lagging and contradictory, further deepening policy divergence and making it difficult for the market to formulate a clear interest rate path. The latest federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen back to below 40%, reflecting a rapid cooling of market expectations for easing. On a macro level, the stronger-than-expected non-farm data should have been hawkish, but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate clearly indicates structural weakness in the labor market, creating a 'disconnected' signal that leads to greater divergence among policymakers in interpreting economic strength or weakness. The lagging nature of this data also makes it more difficult for the market to confirm real economic momentum, leading to renewed demand for safe-haven assets in a high interest rate environment, and this uncertainty is quickly reflected in risk assets. In the crypto market, BTC is significantly suppressed by the $93,000 resistance, further dragged down by cooling interest rate expectations, with prices briefly falling to around $85,000 in the short term. Structurally, if it cannot hold above $86,800, it may further test $80,200. Bitunix analysts state: In the vacuum of unclear signals regarding interest rates and employment, the market is prone to amplify fluctuations, leaning towards a technical structure driven by sentiment in the short term. Three points are suggested to focus on: 1) Whether subsequent revised data from the labor market changes the market's interpretation of economic weakness; 2) Whether internal disagreements within the Fed on rate cuts continue to expand; 3) Whether BTC can hold its lows and challenge the upper range again as liquidity is replenished. These factors will dominate the price rhythm and risk preference direction in the coming week.