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The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50bp this week is higher than 25bp.
On September 17, Jinshi data, according to CME’s “Fed Watch”: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 33.0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 67.0%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed until November is 19.3%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 52.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut is 27.8%.