TD Securities: Canada to experience mild recession due to tariff impact

The March 18th data from Jinshi News, the economic team of the Bank of Montreal, predicted that Canada will experience a so-called “mild” recession starting in the second quarter. Its quarterly forecast assumes that the Trump administration will impose high tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian imports starting in April, which will last for six months and then gradually drop through negotiations. The Bank of Montreal said that the economic losses caused by weak consumption and business investment will be partially offset by the fiscal support of the Canadian government, such as providing $6.5 billion Canadian dollars in low-cost financing to export-oriented enterprises. The institution predicts that the GDP in the second quarter will decrease at an annual rate of 1%, and in the third quarter it will decrease slightly by 0.2%.