Not Enough to Eat? Prediction Market Giants Eye the Payment and AI Cake

Written by: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

There isn’t much time left for traditional gambling companies, and this may be the latest consensus in the prediction market sector.

At the recently concluded Oscars ceremony, Kalshi and Polymarket’s total betting funds first surpassed $100 million, a figure that was less than ten million dollars just last year. On the other side, Kalshi partnered with Cash App to connect user payment channels; after launching the AI Agent CLI app, Polymarket now supports AgentCard, powered by Alchemy, enabling AI Agents to trade 24/7. In this historic moment of 2026, a “Prediction Boom,” the prediction market duopoly is vying for new users in their own ways—targeting real users through payment channels and tireless AI Agents, competing with traditional bookmakers, internet platforms, and even traditional media and finance industries.

New Victories for Prediction Market Giants: Payment Channels and AI Agent Users

Last week, renowned investment firm Paradigm released its first public opinion survey of the year, also the first survey of prediction market platforms by the firm.

The results show that over one-third (about 36%) of American voters have used prediction markets—either participating in bets or browsing markets for information.

In terms of user demographics, 66% of prediction market users are under 50 years old, with 20% aged 18–34 and 27% aged 35–49; non-white voters are slightly more likely to use prediction markets than white voters, and men are significantly more active than women (46% vs. 31%).

This indicates that in the U.S. market, prediction markets are no longer a niche “small track” but have become an integral “source of information,” “trading platform,” and “news pool” for millions of households.

Of course, as the lead investor in Kalshi’s recent $1 billion funding round, Paradigm’s move is undoubtedly a “shout out for its investment”—but this survey also reveals a new question: how will the duopoly of Kalshi and Polymarket penetrate the remaining 64% of American voters and the entire U.S. population?

The answer is clear: either fight against the old forces or seek new growth.

Kalshi’s New Growth Strategy: Connecting Payment Channels to Encourage Deposits

From March 2 to March 8, Kalshi’s trading volume first exceeded 20 million trades, setting a weekly record since its inception. With trading volume and trade count continuously hitting new highs, looking for existing user pools is undoubtedly an efficient way to go further.

This is likely why Kalshi announced last week its partnership with Cash App, a payment app under Block. Kalshi’s official statement was even more direct—“Make funding your Kalshi account easier with Cash App Pay.” The message practically reads: “Quickly fund your account with Cash App Pay and start betting.”

After all, with over 59 million monthly active users on Cash App, even a 1% conversion rate could bring nearly 600,000 new users to Kalshi—more than the users they’ve painstakingly built over two or three years. More importantly, these are all “incremental growth opportunities.”

Polymarket’s Market Expansion Approach: Besides Humans, AI Agents Are Also Targets

On the other side of the prediction market, Polymarket, as one of the duopolists, is also making impressive moves.

Since resuming operations in the U.S. last November, as of March 14, Polymarket’s nominal trading volume in the U.S. exceeded $750 million, with over 5 million trades. Previously, the platform’s open contracts reached up to $2.6 million, but recently fell back to around $1 million.

Additionally, according to Dune data, since imposing trading fees on certain markets (including NCAA and crypto price fluctuation markets) starting January 6, Polymarket has collected over $11.2 million in fees. This fully demonstrates its revenue-generating capability.

Ambitious Polymarket is no longer content with just human users; it is now betting on supporting AI Agents to trade 24/7.

Last weekend, crypto payment platform Alchemy officially launched the AI Agent Payment Platform, AgentCard. Besides standard payment functions like food delivery and AI app subscriptions, it emphasizes that “users’ AI Agents can now trade on Polymarket 24/7”; this message was subsequently retweeted and confirmed by Polymarket.

In the context of OpenClaw’s “Lobster” explosion, and the support for AI Agent payments by x402, ERC8004, ERC8183, a prediction market platform supporting querying market data, executing orders, managing positions, and interacting with on-chain contracts is gradually taking shape.

Like Circle, which elegantly transformed from a “stablecoin issuer” to “building financial infrastructure for the AI era,” Polymarket has already seized the key ecological niche of “prediction markets for AI Agents.” As Nvidia founder Jensen Huang said at last year’s CES, the AI Agent industry will become a trillion-dollar sector like robotics, and the tireless 24/7 AI Agents may shine first in prediction markets.

Conclusion: The New War in Prediction Markets Has Begun

Undoubtedly, a new battle in prediction markets has quietly started, involving deep engagement with existing users, continuous incentives for active users, and converting new users; also extending the boundaries of betting events, engaging with regulators, and developing future-oriented “potential active users” like AI Agents.

Previously, Dingaling, founder of BSC ecosystem prediction platform Predict.fun, planned to launch products combining prediction markets with DeFi, offering users interest income from account funds—an alternative “PayFi” yield product worth looking forward to.

Regardless of how prediction markets develop, Kalshi and Polymarket have already unlocked new growth levers in their pursuit of raising $20 billion or more.