Solana co-founder warns of 50/50 risk quantum tech will crack Bitcoin in 5 years

Solana (SOL) co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has warned about the potential threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s (BTC) security.

According to Yakovenko, there is a “50/50” chance that within the next five years, quantum computers could become powerful enough to break the cryptographic protections securing Bitcoin wallets, he said during the All-In Summit 2025.

*All-In Summit 2025.*He stressed the need for Bitcoin to adopt a quantum-resistant signature system to safeguard its future, citing the rapid pace of technological development.

“We need to transition Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature system. That’s my bet, because right now there’s a convergence of many technologies. The asymptotic pace of AI and how quickly it accelerates from research paper to implementation is simply astounding,” Yakovenko noted.

“We need to transition Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature system. That’s my bet, because right now there’s a convergence of many technologies. The asymptotic pace of AI and how quickly it accelerates from research paper to implementation is simply astounding,” Yakovenko noted.

Despite the looming risks, Yakovenko expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience, provided it continues to operate in an environment of open global competition and avoids heavy-handed regulation

Drawing a comparison to the 1970s restrictions on gold ownership, he argued that Bitcoin could withstand major disruptions as long as it remains accessible to the public.

Yakovenko also praised Bitcoin’s design, highlighting its simplicity and settlement-focused structure. He described its proof-of-work mechanism as “a masterpiece in terms of elegance and simplicity.”

Crypto community divided on quantum threat

It’s worth noting that the cryptocurrency community remains divided on the urgency of the quantum threat. As reported by Finbold, Blockstream CEO Adam Back and Bitcoin Core contributor Peter Todd argue that practical quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures are still distant, though preparation is necessary.

By contrast, quantum security experts like Chris Erven warn that such machines could arrive within five years, urging faster adoption of post-quantum cryptography

Meanwhile, Strategy’s Michael Saylor has dismissed much of the discussion as hype, arguing that immediate threats such as phishing and software flaws are more pressing.

Concerns over the quantum threat have intensified as technology companies continue to advance in the field

For instance, Google’s 105-qubit “Willow” processor demonstrated major progress in error reduction and scaling, while academic research has shown that algorithms such as Shor’s and Grover’s could eventually undermine Bitcoin’s cryptographic security.

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