Peace Agreement Between Russia and Ukraine Nears Completion! Trump Envoy: Only Donbas and Nuclear Power Plant Control Remain

Trump administration’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg stated at the Reagan National Defense Forum that an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war is “really close,” and that efforts to resolve the conflict have entered the “final 10 meters.” Only two key issues remain unresolved: the territorial status of Donbas and control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Kellogg said that total deaths and injuries on both sides have exceeded 2 million. However, the Kremlin responded that the US proposal requires “fundamental changes.”

Only Two Major Issues Remain: Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

(Source: Wikipedia)

At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, Kellogg said that efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict have entered the “final 10 meters,” which is usually the hardest part. He pointed out that the two main unresolved problems are a territorial issue—mainly the future of Donbas—and the future of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear plant in Europe, currently controlled by Russia.

Kellogg said, “If we can solve these two problems, I think the other issues will be largely resolved. We are very close. Really, very, very close.” Such optimism is rare in public statements from the Trump team, suggesting that negotiations may indeed have made substantive progress.

Donbas, comprising Donetsk and Luhansk, is at the heart of the Russia-Ukraine war’s territorial dispute. The Kremlin’s so-called “territorial issue” is a demand for sovereignty over the entire Donbas. However, Ukraine still controls about 5,000 square kilometers of Donbas. Nearly all countries recognize Donbas as part of Ukraine, making any transfer of territory face major international legal and political obstacles.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant issue is equally thorny. This is Europe’s largest nuclear facility, with six reactors and a total capacity of 5,700 megawatts. Since its capture by Russian forces in March 2022, the facility has been a focal point of military action, triggering serious international concerns over nuclear safety. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly called for a security zone around the plant, but neither Russia nor Ukraine has agreed.

Core Disputes: Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

Donbas Sovereignty Issue: Russia demands the entire Donbas, while Ukraine retains control of about 5,000 square kilometers, involving international law and the principle of territorial integrity.

Nuclear Plant Control: Russian forces occupy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, Ukraine demands its return, and the international community is concerned about nuclear safety risks.

Population and Resources: Donbas is rich in coal and industrial resources; the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant once supplied 20% of Ukraine’s electricity.

Zelensky’s Firm Stance: No Concessions Before National Referendum

Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that handing over the remaining areas of Donetsk without a national referendum would be illegal and would give Russia a springboard for deeper future aggression into Ukraine. This hardline stance indicates that, even as the Trump team claims to be close to a deal, Ukraine still has major reservations.

On Saturday, Zelensky said he had a lengthy and “substantive” phone call with Vitek and Kushner. The Kremlin said Kushner is expected to take the lead in drafting a potential agreement. This suggests that the Trump team is attempting to bypass traditional diplomatic channels, pushing negotiations through family members and close confidants.

Zelensky’s referendum demand is not unfounded. Article 73 of Ukraine’s constitution explicitly requires any changes to national territory to be decided by a national referendum. This means that even if a framework agreement is reached, it still requires direct authorization from the Ukrainian people. Polls show more than 80% of Ukrainians oppose ceding any territory to Russia, making a referendum likely to be the biggest obstacle to any peace deal.

Additionally, Zelensky’s concern about a “springboard effect” has historical precedent. After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, it did not stop military pressure on Ukraine but instead supported separatists in Donbas, ultimately leading to the full-scale invasion in 2022. This experience makes Ukraine extremely cautious about any territorial concessions.

Kremlin Responds: US Proposal Requires Fundamental Changes

On Sunday, Russian media quoted Putin’s chief foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov as saying that the US must make “significant, indeed fundamental changes” to its Ukraine proposal. He did not specify what changes Moscow wants Washington to make. This vague statement could be a negotiation tactic—or indicate that divisions remain substantial.

Last week, Putin held a four-hour meeting at the Kremlin with Trump envoy Steve Vitek and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Ushakov said the two sides discussed the “territorial issue.” This was the most substantive direct contact between Russian leadership and the Trump team since the war began. The length of the meeting suggests that in-depth discussion took place, not just a courtesy call.

However, the Kremlin’s call for “fundamental changes” poured cold water on the process. It may mean that the US proposal, in Moscow’s view, still fails to meet Russia’s bottom lines on issues such as territorial sovereignty, NATO expansion limits, or Ukraine’s demilitarization. A leaked US peace plan last month contained 28 points and sparked concerns among Ukrainian and European officials, who viewed it as making major concessions to Moscow on NATO, Russian control of one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, and limiting the size of Ukraine’s military.

The Pressure for Peace Amid 2 Million Casualties

Retired Lt. Gen. Kellogg, a veteran of the Vietnam, Panama, and Iraq wars, said the scale of death and injury in the Russia-Ukraine war is “shocking” and unprecedented for a regional conflict. He estimated that total deaths and injuries on both sides have exceeded 2 million. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has published credible casualty data, but if true, this would make the Russia-Ukraine war Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.

Trump has said he hopes to be remembered as a “peacemaker.” He claims that ending Europe’s deadliest conflict since WWII is his hardest foreign policy goal to achieve. This shows that Trump views peace negotiations as a core part of his presidential legacy.

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, after eight years of fighting between pro-Russian separatists in Donbas and Ukrainian forces. Russia currently controls 19.2% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea (annexed in 2014), all of Luhansk, over 80% of Donetsk, about 75% of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.

The figure of 2 million casualties adds urgency to peace talks, but also makes any deal perceived as a “sellout” unlikely to be accepted by either population. For Ukraine, enormous sacrifices demand commensurate results; for Russia, such a high cost also requires substantial territorial or strategic gains to justify the war’s “legitimacy.”