Bitcoin Price Prediction: 2021 Double Top Pattern Reappears, Will the 70% Crash Happen Again?

Bitcoin is starting to exhibit its most pessimistic peak structure since the 2021 bull market. Analyst Leshka points out that back then, after Bitcoin rebounded from the $40,000 cycle support, it was quickly rejected, triggering a continuous decline to $30,000, and eventually falling to $20,000. Alex Wacy predicts that Bitcoin will drop to $40,000, citing a rejection at the multi-year uptrend resistance line—a pattern that has historically led to 70% pullbacks.

2021 Double-Top Fractal Fully Repeats: Bull Trap Activated

(Source: Trading View)

The weekly chart shows an unsettling similarity. In 2021, Bitcoin reached its first peak of $64,000 in April, then fell back to around $30,000, before rebounding to an all-time high of $69,000 in November—only 7.8% higher than the previous peak, forming a classic double-top pattern. Bitcoin then plummeted, briefly rebounding around $40,000, creating a “bull trap” that attracted the last wave of bulls. When this rebound failed, Bitcoin entered a prolonged bear market, eventually falling to $15,500 in November 2022, a drawdown of over 77% from the peak.

The trajectory in 2025 is astonishingly repeating this script. Bitcoin broke through $126,000 in October, setting a new all-time high. But it quickly dropped back to the cycle support area of $82,000 to $88,000, a 34% decline. This support zone is similar to the $30,000 defense line of 2021. The subsequent rebound stalled below $95,000, closely resembling the failed rebound around $40,000 in 2021.

Analyst Leshka particularly emphasizes the accuracy of this fractal. In the 2021 version, after the rebound failed, Bitcoin entered a 12-month downward channel. If history repeats, Bitcoin in 2025-2026 may face an equally long adjustment period. Even more concerning, the current macro environment is also similar to 2021: the Fed shifting from easing to tightening, overvaluations, rampant leverage, and retail investor frenzy are all reappearing.

2021 vs. 2025 Bitcoin Price Movements Comparison

First peak: April 2021, $64,000 vs. March 2025, $100,000 (assumed)

Deep correction: 2021 dropped to $30,000 (53% decline) vs. 2025 dropped to $82,000 (34% decline)

Second peak: November 2021, $69,000 vs. October 2025, $126,000

Bull trap rebound: 2021 rebound failed at $40,000 vs. 2025 rebound stalled at $95,000

Alex Wacy Warning: Multi-Year Trendline Rejection Signals 70% Pullback

Analyst Alex Wacy provides a similarly pessimistic forecast from a more macro perspective. He points out that Bitcoin is currently testing a multi-year uptrend line connecting several cycle highs, which has provided reliable resistance over the past decade. When Bitcoin price touches this trendline and is rejected, historical data shows that it usually leads to a sharp drawdown of 60-70%.

The significance of this multi-year uptrend line is that it represents the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s long-term value growth. When the price rises too quickly in the short term and exceeds this line, the market considers it overvalued and selling pressure surges. In 2017, after Bitcoin touched and was rejected by this trendline, it crashed 83% in 2018. In 2021, a similar rejection resulted in a 77% drop in 2022. If the $126,000 peak in 2025 is also a trendline rejection, a 70% pullback would bring Bitcoin down to around $37,800—matching the $40,000 target.

Wacy’s analysis is based on a core assumption: the four-year cycle formula for Bitcoin is still valid. This formula reflects a Bitcoin price pattern driven by halving events, where supply cuts trigger a boom-bust phase roughly every four years. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin hit new highs within six months, matching historical trends. If the cycle continues, the next phase should be a 12-18 month bear market, followed by a new accumulation phase before the next halving.

However, this cyclical theory is under question. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley states: “Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the arrival of new management, we’ve entered an entirely new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. I believe we’ve likely already experienced almost six months of a bear market and are about to exit it. The current crypto landscape has never been stronger.” This view suggests that the entry of institutional investors has changed Bitcoin’s market structure, and the traditional four-year cycle may no longer apply.

Binance Inflows Unusually Calm: Panic Has Yet to Arrive

(Source: CryptoQuant)

On-chain data brings a surprising twist to the bearish scenario: despite Bitcoin’s 36% pullback from its peak, the total amount of crypto flowing into Binance remains very low. Historically, during mid-cycle corrections—such as in April 2024 (after breaking the $73,800 ATH) and December 2024 (after breaking $100,000)—there were massive inflows of over 140 million to 200 million tokens, indicating broad market readiness to sell.

This time, inflows have dropped nearly fivefold and are remarkably steady, even during deeper corrections. The lack of exchange deposits suggests investors are not eager to exit. Instead, holders seem content to weather the downturn, suppressing selling pressure rather than adding to their positions. This behavior is in stark contrast to 2021, when each correction was accompanied by large exchange inflows and panic selling.

This unusual calm can be interpreted in two ways. The optimistic view is that holders remain confident, unfazed by short-term fluctuations—which could become a constructive undercurrent. With few signs of panic selling, the market may be quietly preparing for a more sustained recovery after Bitcoin’s structural retest of the cycle support. In this scenario, the current downturn is merely a healthy correction, not a trend reversal.

The pessimistic view is that the market is in a “denial phase,” with holders failing to realize the seriousness of the bear market and still fantasizing about a quick price rebound. When this illusion is finally shattered, it could trigger even more violent panic selling. The early 2021 bear market also experienced a similar period of calm, with the real crash occurring months later. If Bitcoin falls below $80,000 and continues downward, it could spark a delayed wave of panic selling.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Roadmap: Three-Stage Downside Targets

If the 2021 fractal continues to play out, Bitcoin faces the risk of breaking support and entering a more severe correction phase. The downside structure measured in Bitcoin price forecasts is divided into three stages. The first stage is the current $82,000–$95,000 range consolidation, the formation period for the bull trap. Once the $80,000 support is broken, the second stage begins, targeting the $55,000 to $50,000 area—a 55-60% drawdown from the peak.

The third stage’s extended target is near $40,000, echoing the scale of the retreat after the failed bull trap rebound in 2021. The $40,000 target is not arbitrary, but is based on a comprehensive analysis of Fibonacci retracement and historical support levels. From the $126,000 high, the 61.8% golden ratio retracement is right around $48,000, while a 70% drawdown is $37,800—matching the $40,000 target.

This three-stage decline pattern has recurred throughout Bitcoin’s history. In the 2017-2018 bear market, Bitcoin dropped from $20,000 to $6,000, rebounded to $10,000 to form a bull trap, and ultimately fell to $3,200. In the 2021-2022 bear market, it fell from $69,000 to $30,000, rebounded to $48,000 to form a bull trap, and ultimately fell to $15,500. If the pattern repeats this time, after the current failed rebound, Bitcoin will enter a prolonged bottoming phase.

In terms of timing, this adjustment could last 12-18 months. The 2021 peak in November to the 2022 low in November lasted exactly 12 months. If counted from the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin may hit its final bottom between mid-2026 and the end of 2026. This means the coming year could be a bear market environment, and investors need to be mentally prepared to endure long-term paper losses.

However, it must be noted that historical fractals do not necessarily repeat. Changes in market structure—especially the massive participation of institutional investors and structural buying from Bitcoin ETFs—could alter the traditional cycle pattern. The abnormal calm in Binance inflows suggests that today’s market participant structure is fundamentally different from 2021. Therefore, while the Bitcoin price forecast warns of risks at $40,000, it is not a certainty, but a potential scenario that requires close attention.