The "conference drop" curse strikes again? Abu Dhabi Bitcoin Conference faces price test

As Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around $92,000, the final major industry event of 2025—the Bitcoin MENA 2025 conference—kicked off in Abu Dhabi. A “curse” haunting the market has become a renewed focus: so far in 2025, each of the four previous major Bitcoin conferences witnessed a price pullback during the event, with drops ranging from 5% to 12%. However, the backdrop of this meeting is markedly different: UAE national security officials have publicly declared Bitcoin a “key pillar” of future finance, and the sovereign fund Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC) increased its Bitcoin holdings to $518 million in Q3. Will steadfast Middle Eastern capital break the “price drop at every conference” pattern this time?

The 2025 “Price Drop at Every Conference” Curse: Historical Data Reveals an Awkward Pattern

For Bitcoin traders, industry conferences seem to have shifted from being bullish catalysts to “sell the news” signals to be wary of. Looking back at 2025, this pattern has been particularly pronounced. During the late-May Las Vegas conference, Bitcoin’s price fell from around $110,000 at the start to nearly $103,000 by the end, kicking off the year’s “conference pullback” trend.

The story repeated itself. At June’s Prague conference, Bitcoin slipped from $108,000 to below $100,000, a drop of about 10%. At the end of August, the Hong Kong conference saw the price drop from $113,000 to $107,000, down 5%. Last month’s Amsterdam conference delivered the year’s steepest pullback, with Bitcoin plunging from $107,000 to $95,000, a 12% drop. This succession of data is no coincidence—it reflects a common psychological pattern in mature markets: when expectations and hype peak (as the conference opens), some investors take profits, using the influx of retail attention and liquidity to sell off.

This “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior is also prevalent in traditional financial markets. When all good news is fully priced in, the event itself often marks the point where bullish momentum fades and bears seize the opportunity. In the crypto market—characterized by high volatility and sentiment-driven moves—this effect is often amplified. So, as the Abu Dhabi conference opens, the biggest question on investors’ minds is: will history simply repeat, or will things be different this time?

Overview of Bitcoin Price Performance During 2025 Conferences

• Las Vegas Conference (late May): Price fell from around $110,000 to about $103,000, a drop of about 6.4%.
• Prague Conference (mid-June): Price fell from around $108,000 to below $100,000, a drop of about 10%.
• Hong Kong Conference (August 28–29): Price fell from around $113,000 to about $107,000, a drop of about 5%.
• Amsterdam Conference (November): Price plummeted from about $107,000 to $95,000, a 12% drop.
• Abu Dhabi Conference (opened December 9): Bitcoin price at opening was around $92,000, with the market closely watching its movement.

The UAE’s Ambition: A Strategic Upgrade from “Acceptance” to “Pillar”

Unlike previous conferences, this Abu Dhabi event has been marked by strong official backing and strategic declarations from the outset. UAE national security representative Mohammed Al Shamsi, in his opening speech, called this era a “historic stage” for the global economy and explicitly elevated Bitcoin’s status from a “digital asset” to a “key pillar” of the modern financial system. This wording shift is significant, marking the recognition of Bitcoin by a major Middle Eastern economy not just as an investment/speculative target, but as fundamental infrastructure.

More specifically, Al Shamsi emphasized that Bitcoin mining is the “beating heart” of network strength, security, and sustainability, and stated that the UAE is committed to building a sustainable ecosystem that supports large-scale mining. This aligns perfectly with the nation’s long-term strategy of diversifying energy and developing high-tech industries. The conference’s panel on “Bitcoin Mining as a Grid Stabilizer in Emerging Markets” further reinforced this pragmatic approach—Bitcoin is not just about finance, but is deeply entwined with energy, computing, and infrastructure.

These official statements are backed by real capital. In Q3 2025, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council more than tripled its position in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust, reaching nearly 8 million shares worth $518 million. This increase occurred around the time Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, demonstrating the sovereign wealth fund’s intention to treat Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset—allocating it as digital gold. Industry leaders at the conference stated outright that the UAE, with its friendly business regulation and growing ecosystem, is poised to become “the Wall Street of crypto.”

Market Psychology: Can the Price Drop Curse Be Broken This Time?

Faced with a powerful historical pattern and an equally strong new fundamental narrative, the market is engaged in a subtle psychological battle. The bearish logic is clear and has been repeatedly validated: conferences focus attention, making it easier for large holders to sell; after the October all-time high, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, lacking strong momentum for a breakout; technically, the price needs to break and hold above the key $95,000–$100,000 resistance zone to resume its uptrend.

However, there are also strong bullish arguments for breaking the curse. First, the “sellers” at this conference may be different. Selling pressure after previous conferences came in part from early investors and short-term traders taking profits. Now, with the price already off more than 20% from its peak, profit-taking pressure has eased. Second, the UAE sovereign fund’s increased holdings and officials’ strong statements send a signal of long-term capital and top-level policy support, which may offset some short-term “sell the news” pressure. Finally, from a cyclical perspective, year-end is often a time for asset reallocation, and new annual narratives (such as ongoing spot ETF inflows and post-halving cycle effects) may be brewing, providing a base of support for price.

Therefore, Bitcoin’s price performance during the Abu Dhabi conference will serve as a litmus test for the current structural strength of the market. If the price holds firm or even rises slightly during the event, it will greatly boost bull confidence, proving the market’s foundation is stronger than expected and that long-term investors and institutional capital now dominate. Conversely, if the “price drop at every conference” reoccurs, it will indicate the market still needs time to digest previous gains, speculative sentiment remains high, and the correction may not be over yet.