Bitcoin life-or-death line exposed! Strategist: Falling below "this price level" could crash to $50,000

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone points out that Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads, with the $94,000 to $84,000 range being the “life-or-death” zone that will determine its next major move. If this range is breached, around $50,100 is the key mean reversion target, derived from the average of Bitcoin’s annual highs from 2021 to 2023 and its 2024 low.

Strategic Significance of the $94,000 to $84,000 Range

(Source: Bloomberg)

Mike McGlone’s analysis defines the $94,000 to $84,000 range as Bitcoin’s most crucial technical defense at the moment. This $10,000 zone serves not only as a buffer for short-term volatility but also as the dividing line between a renewed bullish recovery and a deeper structural decline. If Bitcoin can stabilize within this range and break above $94,000, the bull market channel could reopen, with a potential target returning to the historical high near $126,000 in November.

Conversely, if it falls below $84,000, it will trigger a chain reaction on the technical side. This price point coincides with the intersection of several key technical indicators: it is just below the 200-day simple moving average of $103,485 and overlaps with an important support area at the beginning of 2024. If breached, the next major support will be the psychological level of $70,000. If that also fails, the $50,100 mean reversion target identified by McGlone could become reality.

This $50,100 target is not arbitrary but based on rigorous statistical analysis. It is derived from the average of Bitcoin’s annual highs from 2021 to 2023, as well as its 2024 low. From a technical analysis perspective, mean reversion is a natural corrective mechanism after extreme market volatility, and historically, Bitcoin has often reverted to such statistical means after bull market peaks.

Bitcoin’s Leadership Is Fading

McGlone’s analysis highlights a deeper structural issue: Bitcoin’s long-standing outperformance over the S&P 500 is gradually disappearing. The ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 is flattening and slightly declining, indicating that Bitcoin, once a market leader in rallies, may now be leading the downturn. Historically, this loss of leadership often signals the start of a trend reversal.

From the annual candlestick chart, Bitcoin’s explosive growth in 2020 and 2021 has been losing momentum. The current candlestick chart even shows a downward move as broader risk assets attempt to stabilize, a divergence that warrants caution. When Bitcoin fails to follow the rebound of tech stocks and the S&P 500, it often means there are internal structural problems within the crypto market, possibly due to institutional outflows or increased regulatory pressure.

Three Major Bearish Technical Signals

Double Moving Average Death Cross: Price at $91,983, well below the 50-day SMA at $99,769 and the 200-day SMA at $103,485, forming a clear bearish alignment.

RSI Neutral to Weak: 14-day RSI at 45.12, not deeply oversold but indicates selling pressure remains, lacking rebound momentum.

Dwindling Volume: Recent rebounds have not been accompanied by increased volume, indicating weak buying power and suggesting a technical bounce rather than a trend reversal.

Can Rate Cut Expectations Reverse the Downtrend

Bitcoin rose on Monday, reversing last week’s pullback, as traders remain convinced the Fed will cut rates this week. The rally was supported by weaker U.S. economic data, which strengthened expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting ending December 10. The latest core PCE data shows cooling inflation, further boosting market confidence in a policy shift.

Typically, lower borrowing costs benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but as policymakers send mixed signals, investors remain cautious about the pace of easing heading into 2026, resulting in only moderate gains. On Monday, Bitcoin rose nearly 4% intraday and gained over 6% on a weekly basis, but this rebound remains insufficient compared to the previous decline.

Historically, rate cuts do not provide an immediate boost to Bitcoin. After the Fed shifted to rate cuts in 2019, Bitcoin went through months of consolidation before a true bull market began. The current market challenge is whether, even if rate cuts occur, there will be enough buying support before the $84,000 support level is tested.

How Should Investors Respond

For holders, $84,000 is the critical line that must be closely monitored. If the daily close falls below this key level, it is advisable to consider reducing positions or setting stop-loss orders, as the path to $50,100 may be faster than expected. For those on the sidelines, wait for two clear signals: either a solid hold above $94,000 with strong volume, confirming a bull market resumption; or, after a drop below $84,000, significant panic selling and volume expansion in the $70,000 to $75,000 range, which could form a mid-term bottom.

Technical indicators show that Bitcoin is currently in a bearish state but not yet oversold, meaning there is still room for further decline. Only when the RSI drops below 30 into oversold territory and volume shows a clear increase may a genuine bottoming opportunity emerge.