#美联储政策和领导层变动 Analyzed the latest report from Societe Generale, they predict that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year, and U.S. Treasury yields still have room to decline. This is largely consistent with my previous judgment. Notably, the report suggests that by the end of 2026, the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds will fall to 3.20% and 3.75%, respectively. This prediction is quite specific and requires ongoing monitoring of economic data to verify.

From on-chain data, there are currently no obvious changes in fund flows. However, if U.S. Treasury yields indeed continue to decline, it could stimulate some funds to flow from the bond market into risk assets. It is recommended to closely track the movements of large wallet addresses, especially those that have historically been sensitive to interest rate changes. Additionally, keep an eye on the minting and burning of USD-pegged stablecoins, which may reflect changing market attitudes towards the dollar.