#美联储货币政策 Noted that Goldman Sachs predicts a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. From on-chain data, this expectation has been somewhat reflected in the market. It has been observed that some large funds have recently flowed into stablecoins, possibly preparing for potential market volatility. Meanwhile, the interest rates on DeFi lending platforms have also shown subtle changes. It is recommended to closely monitor the FOMC meeting results and their impact on the cryptocurrency market. Pay special attention to the capital flow and trading volume changes

#Polymarket预测市场争议 Seeing this prediction on Polymarket, I find it quite interesting. A 45% chance predicts that Bitcoin could still rise to $100,000 this year, which is indeed a significant figure. However, I am more concerned about the flow of funds behind it and the movements of major players. Further analysis of on-chain data is needed to examine recent large transfers and inflows and outflows on exchanges to assess the credibility of this prediction. After all, prediction markets may also be manipulated, so simply looking at the probability number is of little significance. Next, I will f

Analyzing the future monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve, I believe market volatility risks may increase. Currently, there are clear disagreements within the committee on rate cuts, which could weaken the effectiveness of policy signals. If a split vote like 7:5 occurs, it will bring uncertainty to the interest rate market and risk assets. On the other hand, if the new chair leans toward a dovish stance, it could trigger inflation concerns and put pressure on the US dollar. It is recommended to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's decision-making trends and their impact on capita

#预测市场发展 This news is indeed eye-catching. Kalshi's success not only demonstrates the enormous potential of prediction markets but also showcases the innovative capabilities of young entrepreneurs in the fintech sector. From on-chain data, there has been a recent influx of funds into prediction market-related projects. This may indicate that the field is about to experience a new wave of development.
However, we still need to closely monitor regulatory developments. Prediction markets may face legal challenges in certain countries. Investors are advised to fully consider compliance risks when

#全球经济形势 Analyzing the impact of global M2 changes on Bitcoin requires more dimensional data. Relying solely on M2 growth to infer Bitcoin trends is overly simplistic. Focus on capital flow models; the market may already be near the cycle top. However, a strengthening dollar could lead to a decline in global M2, which contradicts the Federal Reserve's easing policy. It is recommended to monitor various indicators such as national monetary policies, institutional fund movements, on-chain Bitcoin data, and others to make a comprehensive judgment of market trends. In the current environment, the

#比特币价格分析 Analyzing this news, it suggests that the Bitcoin market may have already entered a cycle top. Willy Woo's viewpoint is worth noting; he made this judgment based on a capital flow model. Although the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and increasing money supply, global M2 may not necessarily rise. The key factor is whether investors prefer the US dollar over risk assets. I believe that at this point, it is important to closely monitor institutional capital movements and on-chain data, especially large transfers and exchange inflow and outflow, to verify if a top has really be

#加密货币市场分析 After analyzing the latest report from Santiment, it seems that ETH is at a critical juncture. The $3200-$3250 range acts as a strong resistance level, where both bulls and bears may engage in intense competition. It is worth noting that market sentiment appears to be undergoing subtle changes. The previously popular "buy the dip" strategy is beginning to fade, replaced by concerns over potential liquidation risks of certain crypto companies. This shift in sentiment could impact short-term price movements. It is recommended to closely monitor ETH's performance around this resistance

#加密货币监管政策 Seeing this news, I think the regulatory authorities' stance has become clearer. Including stablecoins within the category of virtual currencies is mainly to regulate related business activities, rather than to prohibit them entirely. This move is conducive to preventing financial risks, especially potential issues related to cross-border capital flows.
From on-chain data, recent trading volumes and the number of addresses holding stablecoins have decreased, which may be related to stricter policies. However, I believe that stablecoins, as an important value anchoring tool within th

#美联储政策与经济指标 Recently, the Federal Reserve's policy movements have attracted attention. Trump's frequent pressure on Powell to cut interest rates reflects dissatisfaction with the current interest rate levels. From on-chain data, changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations have indeed influenced capital flow directions. Recently, the stablecoin minting volume has increased, possibly indicating that some funds are on the sidelines. However, it is difficult to determine the actual policy direction based solely on politicians' statements. More importantly, closely monitoring changes in economi

#美联储货币政策 Just saw an important message: after ending its quantitative tightening policy, the Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements. This is the second-largest injection since the pandemic began and is worth paying close attention to.
From on-chain data, this move has already had a certain impact on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin prices have experienced significant fluctuations, and MicroStrategy(MSTR)'s stock has also responded. This may indicate that market expectations for increased liquidity are heating up.
Next, I will f

#加密货币市场行情 This week's data shows a significant net inflow into crypto assets, totaling $1.07 billion, reversing the previous four weeks of large-scale capital outflows. The US market performed particularly well, contributing nearly $1 billion in inflows. In terms of specific assets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all received substantial capital inflows. This shift is mainly driven by remarks from Federal Reserve official Williams about the possibility of interest rate cuts. Although trading volume was relatively low during Thanksgiving, the overall funding environment remains positive. These dat

#加密货币监管 The Japanese government supports reducing the cryptocurrency profit tax rate to 20%, which is a noteworthy regulatory development. From an on-chain data analysis perspective, this move could stimulate an increase in cryptocurrency trading volume and holdings in the Japanese market. An influx of funds into Japanese exchanges is expected, especially from high-net-worth individual investors. At the same time, this may trigger other countries to follow suit, promoting the unification of global cryptocurrency tax policies. However, close attention should be paid to how investor protection

#日本央行货币政策转向 Recently, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy shift has attracted significant market attention. Data shows that the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.879%, reaching a new high since 2008. This change could trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets. Notably, as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, Japan's policy shift may lead to capital flowing back from the U.S. market, thereby affecting the trend of U.S. Treasury yields.
Analyzing this situation, the outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may face challenges. Rising U.S. Treasury yields

#加密货币市场趋势 Noticed that IBIT has recently experienced a large-scale outflow of funds, but I don't think this is an abnormal phenomenon. Based on the data, the $2.34 billion outflow is indeed eye-catching, but considering Bitcoin's volatility and the flexibility of the ETF itself, this kind of fund movement is understandable.
It is worth noting that despite the outflow, IBIT investors currently have about $3.2 billion in accumulated unrealized gains, which indicates that overall performance remains strong. From a long-term perspective, spot ETFs as a new investment tool are experiencing rapid g

#比特币价格走势 Analyzed based on Grayscale's latest report predictions, there are a few points worth noting. First, the expectation of Bitcoin hitting new highs in 2026 seems somewhat optimistic and should be approached with caution. Second, a decline of over 25% is indeed common during bull markets, which aligns with historical data. The most critical aspect is the change in market structure, as the dominance of institutional funds is forming, which could impact future price volatility. On the macroeconomic front, potential rate cuts and supportive cryptocurrency legislation are indeed positive fa

#加密货币监管动向 This news is indeed very interesting. Vanguard, as a traditional financial giant, has finally opened the door to crypto assets, which is undoubtedly a signal of clearer industry regulation. From the data, this could bring a new wave of institutional funds flowing in. However, I believe we should view this cautiously, as Vanguard is only opening trading and has not launched its own products. Next, I will closely monitor the actions of other large asset management firms and the impact of this policy on the number of holding addresses for mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. O

#美联储货币政策 The nomination process for the new Federal Reserve Chair is accelerating, which will have a significant impact on market sentiment and asset price movements. According to the latest news, the final candidate has begun meeting with top White House officials, and Trump may announce the nominee before Christmas. Currently, Haskett seems to be the preferred choice, but there are still uncertainties. Meanwhile, rumors of Powell's resignation are resurfacing, although there is no official confirmation. Powell will speak this Tuesday, which warrants close attention. It is recommended to clo

#比特币价格分析 Analyzed the latest market dynamics, Ethereum is approaching the key resistance zone of $3200-3250. This price range is the focal point of the buy-sell battle, and breaking through is not easy. Notably, the previously popular "buy the dip" strategy seems to be weakening, and investor sentiment is showing subtle changes. Discussions on social media have shifted from simple bottom-fishing to concerns that some large crypto companies may face liquidation. This narrative shift could indicate that the market is about to enter a new phase. It is recommended to closely monitor trading volum