#美联储货币政策 According to the latest data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 87.6%. This figure is largely in line with market expectations and reflects strong investor anticipation of a shift in monetary policy. Notably, this Wednesday's upcoming interest rate decision and dot plot will become key indicators. I believe that even if this rate cut is implemented, it is more important to analyze the Fed's forecast for interest rates in 2026. This will provide important clues for assessing the medium- to long-term direction of monetary policy. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in the dot plot, combine economic data and inflation expectations, and comprehensively evaluate future interest rate trajectories to inform asset allocation strategies.