#通胀与经济增长 The latest Federal Reserve decisions and subsequent comments have been summarized, with several key signals worth noting:

**Divergence in policy stance is widening** — The 9:3 voting split seems consistent, but internal disagreements within the FOMC between maintaining steady rates and cutting rates have already manifested. The median dot plot for only one rate cut in 2026 is well below the market expectation of 55 basis points, reflecting an inherently "hawkish" stance that signals caution about inflation stickiness.

**Conditions for rate cuts are narrowing**. According to Nick Timiraos, future rate cuts will mainly depend on three paths: waiting for evidence of inflation declining, signs of deterioration in the labor market, or — most notably — a "significant change" in the composition of Federal Reserve leadership. This suggests limited technical room for rate cuts, with increasing weight on political factors.

**Trump's challenge to the Fed's independence continues to be tested**. Using the metaphor of a "raptor probing the fence" to describe recent policy conflicts, implying that although the institutional moat appears solid, uncertainty is increasing.

From an on-chain perspective, this complex policy outlook suggests market volatility may remain elevated, and large capital flows will be more cautious and observant. It is recommended to monitor institutional fund inflows and outflows, as well as changes in contract holdings, as these indicators often reflect genuine expectations adjustments earlier than public statements.