#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Divergence signal triggered! Bitcoin may迎50%+ surge!

The "divergence" between the crypto market and traditional safe-haven assets often hides the most explosive market secrets. Since January, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has completely loosened, with the 52-week correlation first reaching zero and approaching the negative zone. This signal, after three and a half years, points to a potential strong market rally.
1 Correlation reaching zero hides secrets
Data shows that as of January 14, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero, marking the first breakthrough since mid-2022.
The market generally predicts that this value will likely turn negative by the end of January.
As two core safe-haven assets, their shift from synchronized movement to complete decoupling is essentially a restructuring of risk appetite, also indicating that the crypto market will move towards independent行情.
2 Negative correlation always leads to暴涨
Looking back at past market cycles, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold turning negative is not a bad thing; it is actually a "prelude to rise."
Historical similar scenarios show that whenever their linkage shifts from positive to negative, Bitcoin often experiences爆发 within the following two months, with an average increase of 56%.
If this pattern repeats, the target price range for this round of行情 will be between 144,000 and 150,000 USD, and the upward momentum is worth期待.
3 Liquidity开启“放水模式”
Market movements are never without macroeconomic support.
Currently, signals of global liquidity warming are clear, with global M2 steadily growing. More importantly, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) has entered the final stage, shifting market liquidity from "pumping" to "injection."
Bitwise research director Matt Hougan straightforwardly states that a new round of global monetary easing has already started, which will持续注入动力 to Bitcoin's走势 until 2026.
4 Bull market path replays 2020盛况
From a周期结构 perspective, Bitcoin is moving in rhythm with the 2020-2021 bull market.
After a long period of sideways consolidation, it has now officially entered the early stage of a "quasi-parabolic" rise.
Institutional analysis points out that this round of走势高度契合 the fractal characteristics of the previous bull market, whether in terms of capital inflow rhythm or technical形态, all point to a trend-driven上涨 led by institutions.
15万美元成为下一战场 if the historical fractal continues to有效, 150,000 USD will become the核心目标位 for this round of Bitcoin上涨.
Currently, on-chain资金面表现强劲, ETF持续资金流入 and the actions of new巨鲸囤币 form resonance. Coupled with macro liquidity宽松红利, Bitcoin is gradually building a solid foundation for上涨.