Crypto Daily Report #加密市场观察 02.06 (: Bitcoin Falls Below Long-Term Moving Averages Entering Bear Market, Institutional Unrealized Losses Expand While Short Positions Decrease

I. Bitcoin Price Trends and Technical Analysis
1. Bitcoin has recently been on a continuous decline, with prices repeatedly approaching key support levels (such as $65,000 and $69,000), and breaking below the 365-day moving average, entering a bear market phase. Market sentiment is panic-driven, with bears dominating.
2. Technical indicators show extreme overselling (RSI around 17)). Historically, oversold conditions often lead to a rebound, but currently, the price faces long-term support levels like the 200-week moving average (around $68,000). If broken, the price could drop to the $60,000–$70,000 range.
3. There is a clear divergence between bulls and bears. Some believe that the $65,000–$69,000 range is a key zone for a rebound, while bears think that breaking below $69,000 could trigger an accelerated decline. The market is oscillating amid panic and strategic battles.
II. Institutional Movements and Holdings
1. Institutions are actively trading in the Bitcoin market. Some, like Nakamoto, are transferring large amounts of assets (933 BTC), possibly for management optimization, custody changes, or compliance reasons.
2. Certain institutions (such as Strategy under Michael Saylor) are facing significant unrealized losses due to price declines, holding 713,502 BTC with unrealized losses exceeding $4.6 billion. Meanwhile, the “Ultimate Short” address has reduced its short position by 31.57 BTC, with the current short position valued at $4.83 million.
3. New market developments include GlobalStake launching a Bitcoin yield platform, attempting to attract institutional attention back to BTC yields. The normalcy of large asset management by institutional players is evident.
III. Market Sentiment and Institutional Perspectives
1. Deutsche Bank analysts believe that recent Bitcoin declines stem from eroding confidence among institutions and regulators. Factors such as outflows from US spot ETFs and the impact on the “digital gold” narrative exert pressure, but the market structure has not collapsed.
2. JPMorgan notes that despite increased short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s current price is below its production cost ($87,000). Its risk-adjusted value relative to gold has increased, boosting its long-term attractiveness.
3. Individual investors (like Jack Yi, founder of Liquid Capital) have experienced previous bear markets. After catching the top and then bottoming out prematurely, they now prefer to control risks and wait for opportunities. Market sentiment remains divided.