#我在Gate广场过新年 Bitcoin finds support at the 200-week moving average; a clear macro environment is needed to restart the upward trend

On February 17, according to Wintermute research, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driver of short-term volatility. Without "structural buying" (long-term funds capable of absorbing selling pressure) to smooth out fluctuations, the market will experience sharp surges and drops on both the bullish and bearish sides.
From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which has historically been the bottom of a bear market. Wintermute believes that until clear signals reappear at the macro level, each rebound will be seen as a risk-off opportunity rather than a reason to chase gains. For crypto, returning to an upward trajectory still depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average remains a support, and the market has not shown structural damage, meaning that once macro uncertainties subside, the recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the market is dominated by leverage, and $70,000 remains an important near-term resistance level.