AxelAdlerJr

The week is closing in risk-off mode.

LTHs keep dumping their coins on exchanges.

New York’s Attorney General and 23 other states have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade to block Trump’s new global tariffs.
The states argue the tariffs are unlawful and exceed presidential authority over trade policy. The lawsuit seeks to invalidate the measures and recover damages caused to the states.

Someone just pulled 31,900 BTC off exchanges in a single day.
That's ~$3B moved to cold storage in 24 hours.
Selling pressure or accumulation? The stablecoin data tells the full story 👇

STHs are currently in a maximum HODLing regime - they are not selling their coins despite the price correction.

Bear Regime Losing Control
Taker imbalance: +100 (max) OI pressure: +100 (max) Funding: -45 (only anchor left)
Regime Score went from -47 to 0 in 25 days Structure Shift confirmed simultaneously - first time since January. One component is all that separates Bear from Bull.
☕️ Morning Brief 119 👇

Historically, Smart DCA 2.0 has accumulated more BTC per dollar invested across all four cycles. As capital increases, the strategy produces a higher final portfolio value.
I’m looking at the backtest results right now.

From 19.8M mined Bitcoin, ~5.1M are lost forever. Real float = 14.7M BTC. Every cycle this number shrinks. Irreversibly.
I broke down the entire supply into 3 states:
Active - coins in circulation (40.6%)
Dormant - frozen for 1-7 years (33.6%)
Lost - gone forever (25.7%)
One indicator shows what regime the market is in right now - Dormant/Active Ratio. 👇

Global equity markets remained under heavy selling pressure as the conflict with Iran showed no signs of easing and energy prices continued to rise. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell 3.6%, while futures in Europe and the United States pointed to further losses at the market open.

Crypto has a life of its own 🤷‍♂️

Negative funding = short squeeze incoming.
Not this time.
Open interest collapsed from $47.6B → $20.8B. The squeeze crowd is missing the deleveraging story.
Full breakdown in today's Morning Brief 👇

2 hours of structured on-chain reading.
Here’s what you’ll understand:
How Fed liquidity transmits into BTC
Who really controls supply
Where Realized Price becomes support
Who is actually underwater
Why exchange flow panic is often misleading
After this, you stop trading narratives
Full curriculum 👇

HYG 80.28 ↓ -0.55% RISK-OFF 🔴

Low Risk - is that a buy signal? No.
Sharpe: -63 (365d), -287 (180d). The market is not paying for risk. MVRV 0.49 - no overheating, but not a bottom either. Two indicators. One conclusion.
☕️ Morning Brief 117 👇

Multi-timeframe sentiment analysis.
🔴 COMPOSITE: -5.68 | Base: -5.43 | Signal: BEARISH | Conf: HIGH | Thresh: ±2.0

Bitcoin holding near $66K. STH remain underwater. ETF flows turned positive for the first time in weeks.
Market structure has started to shift.
What exactly changed this week and what signal the market is showing right now - breaking it down in the new report 👇

Painful? This is only the beginning of the test. Bitcoin's Percent Unrealised Loss has exceeded 39%. A significant portion of buyers are now sitting in unrealized losses. The market is entering a phase of active pressure - weak positions are gradually being flushed out. There is still room before a full-scale capitulation stage.

Exchange reserve up 28K BTC in 45 days. SMA(30) netflow turned positive for the first time in months. Two signals. One conclusion.
new ☕️ Adler AM 👇

MVRV Z-Score is now deeper than the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms. But NUPL says: no capitulation yet.
Two indicators. Two conflicting signals. Full breakdown 👇