Jamesvanst

BTC and Metals

The trade for the first half of the year is for the reacceleration of the US economy.

MSTR is the sixth best performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 YTD.

It seems institutions are finalising all the plumbing right now, creating structured notes and trusts, and onboarding their clients.
While retail investors are like, "Nah, time to pack it in, four-year cycle."

The weekend CME gap has now been filled.
I'm indifferent to the New Year's Day gap.

Almost two years to the day since the BTC ETF launched.
17 of the past 23 months have seen BTC bottom within the first 10 calendar days of the month. The other six bottomed in the second half.
A CME gap at $90k is all but certain to be filled from the weekend move.
$87.3k is the January low; unemployment data on Friday.

November 21 2022: $15,460 (Bottom of 2022 bear)
November 21 2025: $80,524 (Local bottom 2025 bear)

The game is rigged.
The October liquidation crash was completely fabricated.
It was all a chance for the big boys to get in lower.

Bottoms in

Note that all the bullish BTC news is coming out when all the tourists have disappeared.
This is the accumulation part of the cycle.
It’s not easy, never has been.

It seems the consensus is that everyone is positioning themselves to sell the top of the bear market rally at the end of the month.

The on-chain data looks so much better for Bitcoin; it looks like a completely different asset.
Realized cap ticking higher approaching all-time highs.
Miners have stopped capitulating
Both long and short -term holders accumulating

$94.6k is the line in the sand here, big resistance level here.

Over the past few years, anything can be seized at any time, at any moment and trust in the system is evaporating each day.
This is what metals are currently telling you; it's what Bitcoin will tell you soon.

If there was ever a time to leave the Bitcoin CME gap open it’s this time.

40,500 BTC will be mined approximately in Q1.
Will MSTR acquire more or less than the mined supply?
For reference in the Q4 bloodbath they acquired, 31,018 BTC.