TimelessBeing

My issue with global macro is that, broadly, everyone is looking at the same inputs. Yes, there is still asymmetry, and people who do the extra work instead of being macro tourists can find idiosyncratic opportunities.
But macro is not physics. It is a soft science. There is no real methodological rigour, no clean lab conditions, and a lot comes down to interpretation. That is where people get into trouble, and where the best opportunities usually hide.
In 2008, people had access to the same housing and labour data. What differed was the interpretation. The perma-optimists, shaped by a Pavlovi

Really clean ranging environment if you can map it out
Basically we deadstopped yday within previous weekly bracket
I think this is gearing up for a bit of shenanigans today and I think relief into weekly vwap will be the big test
Doesn't mean you overstay welcome but I am defo not prioritising breakdown shorts here in this environment
#BTC

Gut feeling we get pretty decent relief bounces during the early hours tomorrow
The fuckery will kick in later in the US session where I think risk likely gets offloaded again into another weekend
All in all, im pretty happy with how ive played the week
But remaining nimble here
This is structural support for the indices, $BTC and many individual names
Should be an interesting end to what has been an entertaining week in markets
Look forward to seeing you in the books

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Sri Lanka just declared wednesday a national holiday in an attempt to curb use of fuel
Phillipines is also having serious supply issues
Vietnam I hear has the highest prices bar none globally
And parts of Africa namely Southern African countries are also being hit tremendously hard as they are immensely energy dependent
I haven't even got to europe yet but I trust the issue remains sticky there as well
This can hit global credit markets as economies of scale scramble to pay debt and struggle with balooning energy prices
The US is the best positioned indeed to stomach the blow as

Sri Lanka just declared wednesday a national holiday in an attempt to curb use of fuel
Phillipines is also having serious supply issues
Vietnam I hear has the highest prices bar none globally
And parts of Africa namely Southern African countries are also being hit tremendously hard as they are immensely energy dependent
I haven't even got to europe yet but I trust the issue remains sticky there as well
This can hit global credit markets as economies of scale scramble to pay debt and struggle with balooning energy prices
The US is the best positioned indeed to stomach the blow as

I will caveat my statement of bearish
Being bearish or bullish is a meme
We love memes here
#BTC spends approx. 80% of its time ranging
We have only been ranging since we broke down from our previous value accrued for just over a month now
We can range A LOT MORE (multiple months of value overlap)
In the context of this backdrop where do you think is sensible to position at the top side of value?
Because of that I simply think looking for qaulity shorts into the mid 60s and potentially lower (range lows) is a smarter more prudent play here
That is all

Again I will caveat my statement of bearish
Being bearish or bullish is a meme
We love memes here
#BTC spends approx. 80% of its time ranging
We have only been ranging since we broke down from our previous value accrued for a few months now
We can range a lot more
In the context of this backdrop where do you think is sensible to position at the top side of value?
Because of that I simply think looking for shorts into the mid 60s and potentially lower (range lows) is a smarter more prudent play here
That is all
#BTC

how many charts have i seen with mid 80s flagged
200 d ema
21 weekly ema
Floor from last range consolidation
FVGs etc. etc. etc.
Every mum and their dad has either positioned with leverage or purchased spot in anticipation of offloading in that zone
Patient bears who have been on right side of trend are waiting to attack that zone scaling orders waiting for the pop
You are either in for an amazing surprise (we gush through that zone like Niagra falls) and you get 96 k in quick succession or you are about to round trip in anticipation of higher
I dont make the rules
Reject here or moon
Posit

how many charts have i seen with mid 80s flagged
200 d ema
21 weekly ema
Floor from last range consolidation
FVGs etc. etc. etc.
Every mum and their dad has either positioned with leverage or purchased spot in anticipation of offloading in that zone
You are either in for an amazing surprise (we gush through that zone like Niagra falls) and you get 96 k in quick succession or you are about to round trip in anticipation of higher
I dont make the rules
Reject here or moon
Position accordingly
#BTC

Firmly of the belief we reject very soon
And front run your obvious target of 82-85 keks
Otherwise we might as well raise the target to 100 k
No in between imo
its either reject here and slow grind back to the 60s
Or we are about to witness a demolition job into the mid 90s/100 k
I don't think the latter but a boy can dream
#BTC

Genueinly feel on top of my game
3 steps ahead of the market
You can call it dellusion
I call it unequivocal confidence in my self
Foundations like Rome were built on such devotion
Im on a heater